Red = Incredible Investment

[Tonaci Tran]

Okay... I missed out on so many opportunities in my life..

I was way too young to buy into microsoft before they blew up.
I missed out on the ".com" boom
Real estate market in Southern California is beyond insane.

but you know what.. im soo glad that I didn't miss the boat on reserving RED ONE.

granted I am not instantly rich.. but the 2500 bonus is great for reservation holders. and the potential for what one can do with RED one seems so great (of course without any skill you won't make anything even with the best camera in the world) since its more manageable to make back an investment on a RED ONE..then say a super uber expensive sony cinealta/varicam/viper and considering the multitude of possibilities via Steve Gibby's exhaustive list of uses for RED ONE.....there is great earning potential..not to mention great films, commercials, stock footage, home movies..:biggrin:

[Bruce Allen]

I'd buy shares in Red (the company). That would be a real investment.

Jim, if / when you go public, let us know...

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com

[Michael Ragen]

I remember Jim saying a while ago, maybe on DVXuser, that the company would remain private.

[Bruce Allen]

I remember Jim saying a while ago, maybe on DVXuser, that the company would remain private.

I think I remember that too! Probably for the best, I guess. There is no way I would question Jim's business decisions, anyway.

But it does leave us with a slight problem - we KNOW Red will flourish and everyone will buy a camera. But if everyone buys a camera, rental prices go down, not up. So in one way it makes less sense to own one the more successful it is. On the other hand, you have the whole ecosystem argument, economies of scale, etc... whoops scratch the "economies of scale" thing as a reason to buy a Red One - because if 20,000 people reserve a Red Two, Red will probably be able to make it even better value for money than the Red One.

Counteracting this of course is the very friendly and generous attitude of the company, them trying to reward "early believers", etc. They make you want to buy a camera just because they are so nice and non-corporate, even if you know the Red Two will be even better.

Luckily I don't have the money for one and don't believe in getting into debt, so this is all a moot point.

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com

[Chris Gearhart]

Red Two?

[Bruce Allen]

Surely everyone sits down at a spreadsheet and does some kind of cost/benefit/depreciation analysis of what's likely to happen in the next 5 years before making their Red reservations? How on earth can anyone call it an investment without running the numbers?

Lakeview, I have no secret info on Red Twos. I just don't think it's too huge of a stretch of imagination to predict that there will be a whole line of Reds. The whole "Red One" name kinda gives it away.

Red One will be a huge success, Moore's law will march on and there will be more Reds. The only question is, when the next ones will be made and what their target markets & specs will be.

Actually. Lakeview, I think you are pulling my leg. You are too smart, I've read your other posts. You must have gone through some similar evaluative process to what I am talking about above.

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com

[Rick Darge]

Buckle my shoe?

[Rick Darge]

I wonder if Red does decide to build different models in the future, how that will work exactly? Will they have a sub-$10,000 camera, a $1000 palmcorder? Will this eventually lead to a staggered model of pricing/development? Will RED become Sony one day? Can a wildebeast eat its own head? Did I leave the stove on? Where are my shoes.com?

[Michael Schrengohst]

I think they are planning a micro-red that will attach to Oakley sunglasses that will record 8K on your iPod. It will be waterproof and shockproof so you can get those underwater and skidiving shots you all are itchin to do.

[Chris Gearhart]

It will be a great investment. A wildebeast can eat out of his own palm corder. Your shoes are in the stove, which, yes, is on.

I dunno about a Red Two being a wholly redesigned version of One, though. I suspect any upgrades will be a modular type upgrade (new sensor) and added speed/functionality, packaged as Two. I bet we'll be able to make our Red One into Red Two.

And, Rich, buckle your shoe.

[Gunleik Groven]

Raw unhibited speculations!
I love it!

As the Red one is basically a computer that happens to take pictures, I think the Red Two will come, maybe sooner than later - without leaving then Red One in the dust.

What are the basic limits of computers?
Processing power and data throughput.

What are the basic "complaints" on the Red on this board?
The disability to record more frames pr sec at high resolution.

Hm... Ponder.
That sounds like a processor, RAM and software upgrade to me, and at the same time the transmission technology will be improved, so let's throw in some new ports too (like SATA 2, quad channel SDI, wireless or whatever)

So the Red Two will come, probably sooner than later, but I don't think resolution is what is going to drive it forwards.

Does this make the One a bad deal?
Does Red all of a sudden make my 4 years old G5 incapable of editing uncompressed HD?
Are you crazy?

Cheers!

Gunleik

[Steve Gibby]

From my published interview with Jim Jannard a year ago:

Gibby – “What is the future of the RED Digital Cinema camera? What’s the next generation?”

Jannard – “Well, ideally this one camera will last somebody for decades. But in a world of fast-changing electronics, the more practical idea is to make this camera capable of accepting upgrades. Our goal is not to come out with a replacement model that has a completely new feature set, and that leaves the buyer of this first camera behind. The idea is that this camera is upgradeable as much as possible.

The design is fundamentally flexible, so that for example, if you record to REDFLASH and you have X gigabytes of capacity, and Flash capability grows in gigabytes and shrinks in dollars over the next couple of years, its easy to add those kind of capacity advantages to the existing cameras.
As I said, the goal of RED is to not obsolete the camera, its to upgrade and update this camera.”


-----------------

RED could feasibly change their minds on the above, but thus far I've seen no indication that RED's philosophy on that has changed. Speculation about a "RED 2" is just that...speculation. Until RED talks about a RED2, I'd just focus in on Jim's statement about RED One, its upgrade and update ability, and RED's intention not to make RED One obsolete.

[Joel Kaye]

Until RED talks about a RED2, I'd just focus in on Jim's statement about RED One, its upgrade and update ability, and RED's intention not to make RED One obsolete.

I don't really see the logic in a RED2 anytime soon. The smarter thing is just make one camera perfect. A 2nd camera would just splinter the focus of both RED and the community. Doesn't make sense to me. The camera is modular - the next big news in a year or two should be 'here's the first new module' - aren't you glad you have a modular camera now?

That should be the story. From there you're building a strong, long term message. "We're not going to leave you behind like every other camera manufacturer's business model does."

[PaulClements]

Red could bring out as many cameras as they liked better than RedOne but it wouldn't matter. Until the 4k format is less than that expected by TV or Cinema it will still be capable of producing high quality productions. Just as the DALSA's and Phantom's of this world won't disappear after RedOnes release.

HDtv is here for a few years, probably 10 to 20 all told.

Cinemas are not going to upgrade past 4k any time soon, if at all, they'll likely go 2k digital before 4k. It'll probably take 5 to 10 years before digital cinema is even considered a standard.

RedOne ought to allow the user to produce a high end digital piece for a very very long time and the modularity will only help to increase this argument.

Personally I reckon that RedTwo will be a 3D camera, and even when it is produced the RedOne will still last a very long time alongside it producing 2D cinema before 3D becomes a norm. If you use a philosophy that sooner or later a tool will be bettered then you will never buy a tool in the first place.

[Chris Gearhart]

I agree. I think it's at least entirely too early to worry about a Red Two, if it's ever time.

(I don't mean to disparage you bringing it up, Bruce--hey, NAB's ten days away and we need something to obsess over! And besides, I see where the thread's topic would trigger thoughts of investment return into the future.)

[Obin Olson]

The best thing about RED to me is it's not the GREAR that will limit you, it's your ability as a DP, Gaffer, Editor, Director etc that will hold you back! This is so great to me as all I have ever had access to is digital from dv to dvcproHD I feel I have milked every ounce of the formats, when I look at a really well shot commercial or film now it's the FORMAT that I can see makes it look so great along with the lighting etc etc, I don't care if your looking at a vhs tape of a project shot on 35mm it shows. And Red will give that look.

[Michael Schrengohst]

The best thing about RED to me is it's not the GREAR that will limit you, it's your ability as a DP, Gaffer, Editor, Director etc that will hold you back! This is so great to me as all I have ever had access to is digital from dv to dvcproHD I feel I have milked every ounce of the formats, when I look at a really well shot commercial or film now it's the FORMAT that I can see makes it look so great along with the lighting etc etc, I don't care if your looking at a vhs tape of a project shot on 35mm it shows. And Red will give that look.

Only if you know how to light, direct, edit - etc.....

[Ken Corben]

I wonder if Red does decide to build different models in the future, how that will work exactly? Will they have a sub-$10,000 camera, a $1000 palmcorder? Will this eventually lead to a staggered model of pricing/development? Will RED become Sony one day?

Didn't think the future for RED's next revolution evolution, "the professional pocket camera" would be announced at NAB '07 - WOW!