Red Future?

[Christian Edwards]

I'm not sure whether this is the most appropriate questions to ask but iv been giving it some thought (probably due to big Jon's avatar) so here goes ...

Jim and Red Gangsters,
Where do you see Red Digital Cinema in the next 5-10 year or so , is there any company directive/strategy for the long term??
what mind-Blowingly Awesome and innovative products can we expect?
can we still expect to have product development and support in say 20years?
Would i be right in assuming Red philosophy still be intact(because id hate it if say.. Sony brought you out ) and can we still expect to see you guys to be at the helm ?
obviously you guys have come along way over the last two years and full commendations for that but is this just the start of world domination , how deep does the rabbit hole go??

[Bing Bailey]

RED is a privately held company. nobody can buy them out unless they are willing to sell. I don't think these guys can give you or their competitors a roadmap for the next 20 years. they are just dealing with the next 2 , maybe 5 max.

one thing is sure the RED way of doing things will be the primary way in the next 5 years. I don't think jim would sell to sony anyway. it would go against the whole reason for starting this company to begin with. its not about money for them. its about changing the game and getting the best camera to do the things he likes to do and if other people come a long for the ride great

[Martin Weiss]

Since I am partially responsible for Big Jon's avatar, I take the freeedom of chipping in.

Next year sees 2 cameras, one smaller, cheaper with fewer pixels, one lighter, with more pixels. So obviously in 5 years time we'll have a tiny 20k camera that will get implemented into each eyeball, thus we can constantly beam live 3D vBlogs from out brain. The BazookaX sensor will be virtually sized, so that you can chose your depth-of-field. No one will be sure as to how many pixels it has, as they will be constantly increased via free firmware updates.

In 20 years time, Red will be a country about to take over the moon.

And naturally, Red will continue sharing their corporate strategy on open forums. :)

[Christian Edwards]

RED is a privately held company. nobody can buy them out unless they are willing to sell. I don't think these guys can give you or their competitors a roadmap for the next 20 years. they are just dealing with the next 2 , maybe 5 max.

one thing is sure the RED way of doing things will be the primary way in the next 5 years. I don't think jim would sell to sony anyway. it would go against the whole reason for starting this company to begin with. its not about money for them. its about changing the game and getting the best camera to do the things he likes to do and if other people come a long for the ride great


yeah i kinda had the feeling red is anti-monopolization thought id throw the the dirty S word in to give some contrast. kinda just want to get a sense of some direction and security, all though i have trust and am along for the ride what ever the case

[Christian Edwards]

In 20 years time, Red will be a country about to take over the moon.



laugh out loud

[Jay A. Kelley]

I love this kind of speculation. So I'm going to jump in.

The first thing you need to do is look at Jim's history with Oakley. Most of the time, Business owners stay with what works. Jim likes a strong core product and then he tends to branch off within the industry. That said I would not be surprised if someday RED came out with a military grade camera. But that's wild guessing.

Jim kept Oakley for a long time, and that bodes well for us.. BUT I also think that RED is a hell of a lot harder than Sunglasses, handgrips, Clothing, Backpacks, and Boots (There's more, but don't know it all).

I am more interested in where RED will be in 3 years than 5-10.. Simply cause Jim is going to have to find a better pace for himself and his company, or they are going to burn out.. No joke here. Right now all of them and I mean ALL, are burning the string at both ends. I doubt they will stop until RED's compeltely stable, and all features that can be enabled, are... I expect this by year's end or sooner.

As for competition.. I dunno.. RED has made a lot of design choices that are VERY VERY unattractive to it's competition. Like allowing 35mm still lenses to work on their camera. That is something the big boys will not like.

If you think about it, with the exception of perhaps the body, EVF, and LCD, you don't really NEED to buy anything else from RED. It's all out there from third parties. I am quite sure that NONE of the big boys are going to want to adopt this business model.

And finally.. A camera you do not have to replace.. A camera you can keep upgrading. Now if the sensor upgrade is more than $6,000.00 that could change things, but, if the upgrade is a LOT less than a camera replacement, this is another business model that the big boys won't want to get into.

So what's the danger?

Well you're only going to sell so many REDs.. It's still called a high ticket item. The Scarlets will eventually be RED's main money maker, since they will most likely sell 10x more of those. Epics, are going to be for the larger studios and established production houses/camerapeople like Gibby and Offhollywood.

RED's business model is not designed to make the same money as Sony and Panasonic. The question I cannot answer is how do they handle things when service issues get into the thousands per day? Right now we're talking less than 2,500 cameras in the wild. They've just started.

At an average sale $25,000 per camera, you're looking at a little over $62,000,000 in gross profits to date.. Sounds like a lot, but staff, insurance, benefits, R&D, etc, etc.. Whew!! Money is flying out as fast or faster than it's flying in.

To end: I have a lot of faith in Jim. He'll make this work. And I am sure he has hired people who can run numbers and give him a good idea of where he stands, not to mention the goals they need to attain to get there.

They just need to pace themselves.

This was fun

Jay

[Andrew Ravani]

.

Jim kept Oakley for a long time, and that bodes well for us.. BUT I also think that RED is a hell of a lot harder than Sunglasses, handgrips, Clothing, Backpacks, and Boots (There's more, but don't know it all).

I am more interested in where RED will be in 3 years than 5-10.. Simply cause Jim is going to have to find a better pace for himself and his company, or they are going to burn out.. No joke here. Right now all of them and I mean ALL, are burning the string at both ends. I doubt they will stop until RED's compeltely stable, and all features that can be enabled, are... I expect this by year's end or sooner. -Jay

Yeah - for real - these guys will need a serious break - there just aren't that many great people to go around, and burning out a Jim, Ted, Graham, Jared, or any of the other "reddites" is dangerous for a company (and a community) that needs them so desperately. I sure as hell wouldn't want to be in their shoes - its nice to fantasize about being where the rubber meets the road, but when it comes down to it, most of us would be much happier on the customer end than the provider end. I would MUCH rather spend my time making film to make the money to buy the RED to make more films, than to have to build the damn thing. That would make me nutz.

So, for all you guys at RED do - when you could be out making movies (especially you Jim) but are instead changing our world by leaps and bounds - we thank you - sincerely. Don't forget to get your fun on.
~Drew

[Fredrik Callinggard]

I think the key is:

Scarlet
REDRay

and any other pro / consumer product they can come up with.

That's the bread maker.

Fredrik

[Jannard]

Speculation is fun...

The goal is to develop a strong foundation... sensor technology, electronics understanding, color science, industrial design, etc. All from scratch. Seems like we are close. We didn't know anything, now we know something. Give us a bit more time and we just might be dangerous.

It isn't hard to imagine what kinds of things might come from this foundation. I just want to make sure we are "properly out of control" along the way.

When we (Oakley) released out 1st sunglass in 1984, we were laughed at. 9 years later, we passed RayBan in sales. Who would have thought that Apple could take the music business away from Sony? (Remember the Walkman?).

One thing to know about us is that we are too dumb to be afraid. It should be quite a ride to see where this all goes.

Jim

[Florian Stadler]

Here's my uneducated guess:

Establish a reputation and knowledge base in the Pro/Prosumer realm and keep pushing the envelope in that direction. Then parlay the knowledge and reputation into a very profitable mass produced consumer product down the line.

[Hrvoje Simic]

hmm


...industrial design...

Jim

Need volunteers ? :-)

[Tim Lüdin]

One thing to know about us is that we are too dumb to be afraid.

That kinda sums it up perfectly.:usd:
That's when the passion is stronger than the brain.
That's when you love what you do.
That's when people will love your guts.

That's when you make other people dream.

I had a advertising shoot the last couple of days.
The RED performed perfect. Not one glitch. Nothing.
The Agency and the client loved it. It was a very big Swiss client. I am as happy as I can be.
You came a long way....and you even haven't started.
So thanks Jim and the REDteam.

Tim

[Mark Phelan]

One thing to know about us is that we are too dumb to be afraid.

Jim

A great comment. I can't begin to tell you how much wisdom is spoken there.

Preach.

[Mark Toia]

RUN FOREST RUN!

[Wil Klassen]

Speculation is fun...

One thing to know about us is that we are too dumb to be afraid. It should be quite a ride to see where this all goes.

Jim



A great comment. I can't begin to tell you how much wisdom is spoken there.

Preach.

touchee on all accounts. keep up the great work!

[Johnny Friday]

GUNNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT!!:red_bandana:

[johnkersten]

The difference here is that RED is actually a camera company. Sony, Panasonic, and JVC are electronics companies who make cameras- they've been interested in planned obsolescence from the get-go, which is why they all love their proprietary media and inter-frame compression so much. It's the only way they know how to make money.

We're like Adam and Eve in this brand new world of digital filmmaking- the electronics manufacturers are up there telling us not to bite into the RED fruit which brings the knowledge of good and evil, because then we'll realize what a bad deal we've gotten from them for such a long time. Their sales will be very badly hurt once their market sees just how easy RED makes it to shoot RAW and turn out a high-quality finish right on their desktop.

The same way General Motors is having trouble switching away from SUVs and into Hybrids, the electronics manufacturers will undoubtedly be slow to react with camera development. As publicly traded companies, they can't just abandon the compression technologies they've spent such a long time (and so much money) developing. The next wave of cameras will still use proprietary recording media. Their compressors will use a higher data rate and shorter GOP, but they'll still be there.

This might sound crazy, but... the difference with Red is not that their cameras are better. They're able to do what they're doing because the company doesn't operate along the same lines as its competitors. This comes before the amazing technology, design, etc. It creates a situation which cultivates these things- it's a situation which just won't happen at a company like Sony. It's the same situation which allowed Apple to enter the mp3 player market late in the game and come out on top.

RED, if they keep at it, WILL end up being the market leader. I know this because I said the same thing when I first saw the iPod emerge among mp3 players, and Facebook emerge among MySpace and Friendster.

[J. Bernard Vallon]

I think the brand loyalty Red is establishing with the next-gen indie crowd will be invaluable. I know lots of my clients will remember the day they couldnt afford 35mm, Genesis and Dalsa are out of the question, and Arri doesnt accept nikons, but Red made there project look gorgeous.

[James Brundige]

Corporate culture means something. I was a consultant to Sony in developing their original DVCAM line. The internal turf wars (with Japanese manners) were unreal. The ability of the company to innovate was tied to these incredible power structures. It was like turning an aircraft carrier.

Red, on the other hand, can turn on a dime. And with the web-based sales and marketing, no wholesale and distribution overhead, they will be able to sell their cutting edge gear at low prices, and still make money. This is a remarkable business model that is being joined by others (ET, red rock, etc.) that should have real staying power.

And the corporate culture, led from above, is all about innovation and flexibility. go team!

[Jannard]

The difference here is that RED is actually a camera company.
RED, if they keep at it, WILL end up being the market leader. I know this because I said the same thing when I first saw the iPod emerge among mp3 players, and Facebook emerge among MySpace and Friendster.

Tell all your friends... :-)

Jim

[Richard Lackey]

I also wonder about service and support in the future. That's a real tough one, on one hand keeping centralized US based sales, service and support will eventually mean Jim needs a industrial complex the size of LAX, but with the right kind of process management at least there is control, and a single ground zero with Fed Ex trucks heading in and out 24hrs a day and flights distributing things all over the world (maybe LAX is not a bad idea... with a conveyor belt for big Red boxes to be loaded straight on the aircraft).

The other route is continental/region/country/local based sales, tech support, repairs, etc. but that is such a behemoth undertaking I can hardly get my head around it's implications.

There is running a multinational enterprise on one side and building cameras on the other. At the moment they are building cameras, and we'd all love them to keep doing that, but the danger is in having to rather put so much effort into running a massive multinational organization because of growth.

[Jannard]

I also wonder about service and support in the future. That's a real tough one, on one hand keeping centralized US based sales, service and support will eventually mean Jim needs a industrial complex the size of LAX, but with the right kind of process management at least there is control, and a single ground zero with Fed Ex trucks heading in and out 24hrs a day and flights distributing things all over the world (maybe LAX is not a bad idea... with a conveyor belt for big Red boxes to be loaded straight on the aircraft).

The other route is continental/region/country/local based sales, tech support, repairs, etc. but that is such a behemoth undertaking I can hardly get my head around it's implications.

There is running a multinational enterprise on one side and building cameras on the other. At the moment they are building cameras, and we'd all love them to keep doing that, but the danger is in having to rather put so much effort into running a massive multinational organization because of growth.

Wow! Relax on it just a bit... :-)

Oakley sells and services every market in the world. RED will too...

Jim

[Stephen Williams]

I think the brand loyalty Red is establishing with the next-gen indie crowd will be invaluable. I know lots of my clients will remember the day they couldnt afford 35mm, Genesis and Dalsa are out of the question, and Arri doesnt accept nikons, but Red made there project look gorgeous.

Hi,

I know of many Arri cameras that have had Nikon mounts fitted.

Stephen

[DanWood]

I do not know about the very long term. But, from what I hear from people who seems to know, Sony and Panasonic and canon have no plans to compete with RED. They all sell through midddlemen and the factory gets only a small percent of the retail price. They cannot afford to compete with RED on price. Because RED has no overhead. They cannot afford to compete with RED on quality because the market is not large enough to justify the capital expenditure.

The competition do not have the business savvy and vision of Jim. Jim came from nowhere and conquered the market in just two years. Dalsa 4K, (a better camera), has been sitting on the shelf as a curiosity for many many years. It is still sitting there because they do not have the business brain of Jim. RED did not overtake the world: Jim did.

If you are sitting on the fence deciding whether to buy a RED and wondering whether they will be around in 20 years, then I would say "buy now without fear. Jim and RED will be around after 20 years." (I predict, after making RED a worldwide company, Jim will run for the Whitehouse and succeed.)

[Radoslav Karapetkov]

Fortune favors the bold...

[James Brundige]

If you are sitting on the fence deciding whether to buy a RED and wondering whether they will be around in 20 years, then I would say "buy now without fear. Jim and RED will be around after 20 years." (I predict, after making RED a worldwide company, Jim will run for the Whitehouse and succeed.)

Please don't push the Whitehouse thing. We need him making cameras. Much more important.

[Joe D'Arcy]

Tell all your friends... :-)

Jim

Its hard not to.

[Fredrik Callinggard]

If you are sitting on the fence deciding whether to buy a RED and wondering whether they will be around in 20 years, then I would say "buy now without fear. Jim and RED will be around after 20 years." (I predict, after making RED a worldwide company, Jim will run for the Whitehouse and succeed.)

Actually considering all the military references at RED that would be a scary thought HAHAHAHAHA

(Sorry Jim)

[cinemano]

maybe in 20 years red with have forums of nostalgic people who had reds in the old days.. like today we have for the commodore 64 :D

[Radoslav Karapetkov]

maybe in 20 years red with have forums of nostalgic people who had reds in the old days.. like today we have for the commodore 64 :D


Thy will probably be tired of the 16K RED nano-cams, built-in their pupils. :sorcerer:

[Miltos Pilalitos]

..like today we have for the commodore 64 :D

Ah, C=64...

Those were the days... :sarcasm:

[Stephen Williams]

maybe in 20 years red with have forums of nostalgic people who had reds in the old days.. like today we have for the commodore 64 :D

Hi,

And then went back to film?:biggrin:

Stephen

[laguun]

Hi,

And then went back to film?:biggrin:

Stephen

new film stock will be pretty expensive and rare then.

With many film companies goind bancrupt (agfa film), stopping production (polaroid) or reducing their potfolio (kodak), it will be a sellers market by then.

the bread and butter film market isnt OCN, its copies.
And this market looses 1000s of customers every year.

The 35mm film market will live on, but soon, as S8, Compact Cassette or LP, it will be the niche.

ps.
stephen, i am curious - your red # says epic - i thought you bought 50% of a red one?

[Steve Sanacore]

(I predict, after making RED a worldwide company, Jim will run for the Whitehouse and succeed.)

I don't think Jim would last a week surrounded by the pea brains that run our government.

[Jared Caldwell]

I think one of the main aspects of RED that makes the company so great is the fact that they are a private company. When you are a private company, you have to go through many obstacles, and it is very much sink or swim...but you get the freedom to do what you truly want. Companies such as Sony and Panasonic are public corporations...which means you don't own yourself.

The freedom to branch out and explore new territory really enables RED to be trailblazers in a market that isn't accessible to the common man (or college student! :wacko:)

[Even Solberg]

But, from what I hear from people who seems to know, Sony and Panasonic and canon have no plans to compete with RED.
Maybe not, but I can't help but think that RED certainly seems to have plans to compete with them... :)

[tj williams]

The RED RAY box is the actual key.....Distribution is the money, RED Cameras are just the way to be known.Think to your self which is larger.... Panavision or Disney?

Who thinks bigger you.... "howwww boy I got my camera"...
or Jim .-.--.-----.....---..-......

The person who controls electronic distribution and playback in movie theatres is playing the big game!!!

[Jonathan L. Bowen]

Hi,

And then went back to film?:biggrin:

Stephen

Oh yeah, because I'm sure we're all just stoked to go back to using a lousy 100-year-old technology that is cumbersome, bulky, obnoxious, not redundant whatsoever, and completely obsolete now in every respect. Yeah, I can just see that happening, let's get out our 8-track players and horses and stagecoaches while we're at it too.

*rolls eyes*

[Bing Bailey]

thats the one thing that I never got about film. it never really got cheaper. even with modern methods of producing it. kodak and fuji could have helped a lot by reducing the price for everyone. but they didn't and now digital is eating their lunch. yes I know film is a very small budget item on a large studio films. but most of us aren't studios

[Darren Orange]

but they didn't and now digital is eating their lunch.

Yeah, check out what digital found in the sack lunch it took from film. :w00t:

http://www.theindychannel.com/2008/0225/15404143.jpg

[jimhare]

That's a big burger...

Or, number 2 choice:
That must be the burger mount we've been waiting for...