What will happen after RED delivers…?

[Chuck T.]

After few months (2, 3…6) when several RED cameras’ are out there and one can hire or buy a RED camera - how will Hollywood change...? When a revolutionary technology is introduced into a market, it goes through a maturity process.

Any comments on what you think will happen in the next 12 months…

[Mark Thorpe]

Most people without the budget for RED will then start to look at the shift toward PINK cameras! in other words, cameras released by the competition which pale in comparison.

har har,
Mark

[Michele Gavazzeni]

12 month?
changes in Hollywood needs more time maybe 3 to 4 years.
For sure we will see Red side by side with film camera in some productions but for sure Hollywood is far away of leaving film.

Red for sure is going to hit the professional HD camera market before! Sony Cinealta, Panasonic Varicam, Viper, Phantom and Dalsa are going to have big troubles in the next years, as soon as RedOne will be properly tested on the field by the operator and proved it's solid and reliable.

I'm confident that Red is going to play a major role on the transition and will change the market of digital cameras.

[Jaime Vallés]

You'll see a lot more crappy movies with no grain. ;)

[Jason Murphy]

You'll see a lot more crappy movies with no grain. ;)

Sad, but I think that may be one major result...

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/29815
(It's been posted before, but still worth the read).

Also, even though it's pretty common in this industry, I hope people don't settle for the "good enough" mentality; I'd love to eventually see some people pushing high-end 6K & 8K + acquisition and distribution; something to rival 65mm and go even further (real D-IMAX, anyone?), or work with solutions for a dynamic range that's far better than film. Seems a long way off now, but 2 years ago, a workable 4K solution was prohibitive, both practically and financially. Things keep moving, and ever faster it seems.

[Jim Hoffman]

Sad, but I think that may be one major result...

Also, even though it's pretty common in this industry, I hope people don't settle for the "good enough" mentality; I'd love to eventually see some people pushing high-end 6K & 8K + acquisition and distribution; something to rival 65mm and go even further (real D-IMAX, anyone?), or work with solutions for a dynamic range that's far better than film. Seems a long way off now, but 2 years ago, a workable 4K solution was prohibitive, both practically and financially. Things keep moving, and ever faster it seems.

"good enough" is a big time theme that is creeping fast and hard into so many aspects of our business right now. But companies are businesses and businesses don't work so well if no money is flying in - in otherwords, there will always be new technological developement that drives new sales. While the pros go after the new latest greatest and keep pushing the envelope - prices drop and all this stuff because available to the general market and you have a whole new consumer group...$$$$$$$ Its an exciting and terrifying time. wooohoooooo!!!!!

[GlennChan]

I think you'd see more features shot in 3-D... or at least dabble in it. There will likely always be a niche market for 3-D projection... computer animated movies will definitely make a 3-D Imax version, and blockbusters may increasingly shoot 3-D (esp. those shot on virtual sets).

3-D is something that can't be pirated... so I think studios will be interested in it for that reason. And it generates more value for the moviegoer to see eye candy in 3-D.

[Jason Murphy]

I think you'd see more features shot in 3-D... or at least dabble in it. There will likely always be a niche market for 3-D projection... computer animated movies will definitely make a 3-D Imax version, and blockbusters may increasingly shoot 3-D (esp. those shot on virtual sets).

3-D is something that can't be pirated... so I think studios will be interested in it for that reason. And it generates more value for the moviegoer to see eye candy in 3-D.

Very good point. A few studios and filmmakers are already pushing this. Katzenberg said that by 2010 or some such, all of Dreamworks' movies would be in 3D. And James Cameron's planning a 3D rollout for Avatar in 2009. Hell, even Beowulf is planning a 3D release this fall.

Will be very interesting to see what happens to 3D when it becomes more than just a technical marvel, and people really start to explore the artistry of working for 3D (just like sound, color, 'scope format, etc.)

Eventually, I'm sure 3D will be pirateable, but it's a much bigger hurdle, that's for sure, especially with no significant 3D consumer displays on the market.

[donatello b]

hollywood controls distribution so it will remain a buyers market ...
and it will be business as usual ....
low to med budgets may look better ...
a no/low budget indie movie will still have a 95+% of never seeing the big screen or distribution ...
CF cards sales will soar ...
4k projectors will come to theaters ..
post houses will offer special services for Red (IE: backup data services along with timed dailys to any medium )...
those that bought heavy into the sony f23 will keep the day rate high but will offer a 1/2 day week ...

[Greg Voevodsky]

I predict RED will replace film cameras, faster than Avid replaced flat beds and Movieolas, like color replaced black and white and sound replaced silent films...

Watch out this will be a fast revolution for the cost saving and better picture - the writing is on the wall. I bet in 3-5 years over 90% of movies will be shot digitally and even projected digitally.

[Ken Corben]

Any comments on what you think will happen in the next 12 months…

Jim Jannard will be smiling a lot as RED makes history in Hollywood.


Very good point. A few studios and filmmakers are already pushing this. Katzenberg said that by 2010 or some such, all of Dreamworks' movies would be in 3D. And James Cameron's planning a 3D rollout for Avatar in 2009. Hell, even Beowulf is planning a 3D release this fall.

Will be very interesting to see what happens to 3D when it becomes more than just a technical marvel, and people really start to explore the artistry of working for 3D (just like sound, color, 'scope format, etc.)

Eventually, I'm sure 3D will be pirateable, but it's a much bigger hurdle, that's for sure, especially with no significant 3D consumer displays on the market.

3D will be totally cool in the future. Loooking forward to the new 3D releases slated for release in the near future. The 3D home sets are more than just on the drawing board is all I can say due to NDA with a major manufacturer.

[Poi Boy]

film will be replaced rather quickly and Jim will make a second fortune selling 4K projectors to all the cinemas in the world. I want stock !
Aloha
-A

[Jeff Kilgroe]

film will be replaced rather quickly and Jim will make a second fortune selling 4K projectors to all the cinemas in the world. I want stock !
Aloha
-A

I want a 4K projector!

[Unwounded]

I predict RED will replace film cameras, faster than Avid replaced flat beds and Movieolas, like color replaced black and white and sound replaced silent films...

Watch out this will be a fast revolution for the cost saving and better picture - the writing is on the wall. I bet in 3-5 years over 90% of movies will be shot digitally and even projected digitally.

I couldn't agree with this more. If you can deliver the same qaulity at a fraction of the cost then that's the way the cookies gonna crumble.....Ummm cookies....


film will be replaced rather quickly and Jim will make a second fortune selling 4K projectors to all the cinemas in the world. I want stock !
Aloha
-A

Just wondering. Is Red it's own entity or is it a division of Oakley. Meaning if you owned Oakley stock and Red "Hit" (which it will) would your share go through the roof?

[Andrew Benz]

RED is it's own entity.

[Mark L. Pederson]

I predict RED will replace film cameras, faster than Avid replaced flat beds and Movieolas, like color replaced black and white and sound replaced silent films...


This, IMHO, is pretty on-the-money -

Next 12 months will be VERY interesting - there is a VERY HIGH probability of a multi-union strike in 2008 -

Watch for new wireless technologies to have a HUGE impact on media industry as well ...

[Jason Murphy]

Look for a technical Oscar for Jim and Team at some point, too, most likely.

[PaulClements]

Next 12 months... I reckon the four horseman of the apocalypse will show up and the end of the world will be upon us.

But we'll all be there to shoot it in a glorious 4k lol :)

[Thomas Mathai]

It all depends on how the bond and insurance companies feel about tapeless acquisition.

They make sure studio productions are on track and step in and take over if things derail.

They are the ones to convince that it's safe to shoot tapeless or filmless and the data integrity is maintained. This can take longer than the Moviola switch to Avid.

Why is it that Zodiac is the only tapeless acquired studio film so far, until Benjamin Button comes out, both directed by David Fincher.

Wanted isn't completely tapeless as far as I know.

[Jason Murphy]

Why is it that Zodiac is the only tapeless acquired studio film so far, until Benjamin Button comes out, both directed by David Fincher.

Wanted isn't completely tapeless as far as I know.

Wanted is shooting RED and S35 on 5218, I believe.

As far as Zodiac goes, I'm pretty sure the only reason that Fincher was allowed to use a completely tapeless data-driven workflow for features (with tape backups to LTO), is that he'd successfully pioneered and used that workflow on multiple commercials, and shown that it could be done reliably. And even then, it was seen as a pretty big risk.

I have no clue as to how Soderbergh got studios to sign off on shooting entirely to CF. More power to him.

[Ramesh Jai]

You'll see a lot more crappy movies with no grain. ;)
LOL! Basically high quality crap...

[Ace]

LA Plastic surgeons experience a surge in face lift procedures.

[Ace]

For the first time, bright fiilm-making students will be making self funded films which would inspire the next generation of cinema to come.

[Ace]

Metal is back in.

[Ace]

Oh and last but not least,

Skynet is born.

[Jason Murphy]

LA Plastic surgeons experience a surge in face lift procedures.

If 35mm hasn't sent them to the surgeon, I doubt 4K will. On a related note, how many people in LA who work in front of the camera haven't been under the knife already? :whistling:

[Mark Thorpe]

uhhhh, Stuart Little ??

[Jason Murphy]

uhhhh, Stuart Little ??

Good point. Also Jar-Jar Binks, though I'm sure a lot of people wish he had. :glare:

[Ace]

If 35mm hasn't sent them to the surgeon, I doubt 4K will. On a related note, how many people in LA who work in front of the camera haven't been under the knife already? :whistling:

Yeah, except we dont get to see anything near 4K detail out of 35mm film.

4K Red Revision surgery anyone? :alien:

[Greg Voevodsky]

Just wondering. Is Red it's own entity or is it a division of Oakley. Meaning if you owned Oakley stock and Red "Hit" (which it will) would your share go through the roof?[/QUOTE]

Jim, just sold Oakley for over a billion dollars. So, I'd say he will be spending his full time at Red and taking over a new industry. I'd say he's a bit "avid" and will take over production digitally faster than Avid took over post production.

The suckers who are in denial of digital are happily sitting on the deck of the Titanic. Hope you old folks can swim... since i always saw the end of film editing, film production, and film projection... growing up in Silicon Valley...

Just ask the photographers who use to shoot film.... shoot what?
The editors who cut film... cut what?!
The film projectionist... the what?!@

Movies will now be movies.... digital.. no film... goodbye.. I do not miss the $1.00 a foot or second as a producer, director, or cameraman... it looked great... but at what cost... no longer... say goodbye... goodbye... goodbye... i can't wait to hang a Panavision or arri 35mm camera from the ceiling next to my movieola and flatbed... I'd say the iceberg has been hit.... film is sinking... get ready for the museums next to the fax machines, and mimeograph machines (and they smelled better!)...

[Poi Boy]

Yeah, except we dont get to see anything near 4K detail out of 35mm film.

4K Red Revision surgery anyone? :alien:

right on Ace !
-A

[Thomas Mathai]

Just wondering. Is Red it's own entity or is it a division of Oakley. Meaning if you owned Oakley stock and Red "Hit" (which it will) would your share go through the roof?

Jim, just sold Oakley for over a billion dollars. So, I'd say he will be spending his full time at Red and taking over a new industry. I'd say he's a bit "avid" and will take over production digitally faster than Avid took over post production.

The suckers who are in denial of digital are happily sitting on the deck of the Titanic. Hope you old folks can swim... since i always saw the end of film editing, film production, and film projection... growing up in Silicon Valley...

Just ask the photographers who use to shoot film.... shoot what?
The editors who cut film... cut what?!
The film projectionist... the what?!@

Movies will now be movies.... digital.. no film... goodbye.. I do not miss the $1.00 a foot or second as a producer, director, or cameraman... it looked great... but at what cost... no longer... say goodbye... goodbye... goodbye... i can't wait to hang a Panavision or arri 35mm camera from the ceiling next to my movieola and flatbed... I'd say the iceberg has been hit.... film is sinking... get ready for the museums next to the fax machines, and mimeograph machines (and they smelled better!)...

Maybe you're right, but the only given in this industry is:

"Nobody knows anything"
William Goldman

[I Bloom]

Next 12 months will be VERY interesting - there is a VERY HIGH probability of a multi-union strike in 2008 -


Do you care to elaborate on this prediction Mark? I'm curious.

IBloom

[Stephen Williams]

[/QUOTE]
Just ask the photographers who use to shoot film.... shoot what?
[/QUOTE]

Hi Thomas,

I know a photographer who still shoots film, he charges $50,000 per shot, over 2 days he made 4 pictures for $200,000. He sees no pressing reason to change.

Stephen

[Thomas Mathai]

Yeah, except we dont get to see anything near 4K detail out of 35mm film.

4K Red Revision surgery anyone? :alien:

Well you never done a 4k scan have you? How about a 6k scan?

[M Most]

Do you care to elaborate on this prediction Mark? I'm curious.


The Writers Guild contract is up in October of this year. The SAG and DGA contracts expire next spring. The prevailing wisdom is that the WGA will either walk immediately (unlikely) or get a contract extension (or just agree to work under the current contract) until the SAG and DGA negotiations begin. But all three are looking for significant gains on residuals paid for non-broadcast, non-theatrical distribution (read: DVD and downloads), and the AMPTP has no intention of giving it to them. Studios and television networks are in the middle of stockpiling product in anticipation of possible strikes, that's why numerous television series have been given extended orders this season (for example, the show "Heroes" is making 30 episodes). None of this looks particularly good.

[laguun]

Hi Thomas,

I know a photographer who still shoots film...

i know at least 4.



he charges $50,000 per shot, over 2 days he made 4 pictures for $200,000. He sees no pressing reason to change.

Stephen

are you sure it wasn´t 51.000$ per shot and 204.000$?

however this person should really consider red - he would shoot at 100p and make 5.000.000$ in one second.

back to reality:
be it nikon or leica, canon or hasselblad, kodak or agfa. Photographers buy digital cameras, camera manufacturers build digital cameras. They all dropped film and started using sensors instead - as they saw the pressing reasons to change, unlike the photographer you know.

film was >95% pro-market share ten years ago iirc.
is it still >5% today?

the indian matters, not the arrow.
film or sensor, in the hands of talented artists can produce excellent results. in photography, film has been become marginalised - as its to slow, complicated, risky, expensive, unflexible etc and has no advantages over digital aquisition.

People who still use analogue audio mixers or chemical cameras however, often do good work, have good clients etc. Anyhow, they have become a fading minority, and the elite certainly isn´t analogue/chemical anymore in sound as in still photography.

[Stephen Williams]

i know at least 4.

are you sure it wasn´t 51.000$ per shot and 204.000$?

however this person should really consider red - he would shoot at 100p and make 5.000.000$ in one second.


Hi,

I am quite sure it was $50,000 not $51,000.

He is a still photographer, he only needs 1 shot!

Stephen

[Rocco Schult]

didn't expect this thread to be so funny and worthwhile reading!

there will still be film, but it will diminish, as analogue photography did.
But honestly: thats not new, is it ?
Rather relevant will be the question how rates of shooting will change indeed.

Apart from that red will bring more weight on creativity on one side (like the old after effects discussion) and service on the other.
Having that digital appliance in your hands, doesn't make anybody a good storyteller or moviemaker nor does it necessarily provide a good service to your client.
I am tensed to see some of that new creative power.
Also I have the feeling that RED enables passion and inspires some creative owls and critters out of their hidings. Thats what I see here everyday. Awesome.

[Zakaree Sandberg]

Hi,

I am quite sure it was $50,000 not $51,000.

He is a still photographer, he only needs 1 shot!

Stephen

hahaha god i hope this is a joke

[Mark L. Pederson]

The Writers Guild contract is up in October of this year. The SAG and DGA contracts expire next spring. The prevailing wisdom is that the WGA will either walk immediately (unlikely) or get a contract extension (or just agree to work under the current contract) until the SAG and DGA negotiations begin. But all three are looking for significant gains on residuals paid for non-broadcast, non-theatrical distribution (read: DVD and downloads), and the AMPTP has no intention of giving it to them. Studios and television networks are in the middle of stockpiling product in anticipation of possible strikes, that's why numerous television series have been given extended orders this season (for example, the show "Heroes" is making 30 episodes). None of this looks particularly good.

Thanks Mike for saving me the explanation.

For the record, I know guys on the negotiating commities ... and they are 100% convinced it's gonna get very, very UGLY.

[Ace]

Well you never done a 4k scan have you? How about a 6k scan?

I've actually done plenty of 8k scans off 35mm film using drum scanners. To be honest, anything beyond 4k and your just resolving a finer grid of salt crystals as grain comes into play. But anyhow, That wasn't even the point. I said WE (viewers in cinemas) dont get to see anywhere near that amount of detail. Unless its projected in 4K off a 6K scan downsampled to a 4K DI ofcourse.

[SovietDiesel]

Just ask the photographers who use to shoot film.... shoot what?
The editors who cut film... cut what?!
The film projectionist... the what?!@

Honestly, you're not going to see film as an exhibition format going anywhere for a while. Digital projectors are extremely uncommon and extremely expensive for commercial exhibition, and most commercial theaters wouldn't be able to afford that sort of change.

I predict that 4k resolution cameras like RED and its competition will impact film production fairly quickly (longer than 5 years, but maybe within a decade); I can't imagine it'll "kill" film, but I can definitely see 35mm being a format for "prestige" films only in short order.

However, regardless of the media used for production, I'd bet good money that even things shot with RED and edited digitally will be printed to film for distribution for the foreseeable future. The logistics of a mass-scale industrial change like overhauling every theater on the planet, installing digital projectors, and establishing a new standardized digital medium for film distribution are too mind-boggling for it to happen anytime soon. Unless Stalin comes back and initiates another 5-year plan.