RED Camera's value drops like a stone!

[Finner]

I hope this got a few peoples attention. I see a major problem comming down the pipe. I first responded this in a thread to a writer director that has very little camera experience and is buying 2 red's.

I just have to point out something that seems a little problematic to me. There are a bunch of people that are writers or directors or film hopefuls with little to no camera experience buying one or more cameras. It just does not make a lot of sense. There are also DP's buying cameras that actually know how to use the gear (I am a director/DP with a few years experience). It just seems absolutely crazy to me that a bunch of people that barely know the basics of a camera think it is a good idea and investment to own one. I know the camera is a good price in comparison to other cameras but if you really do not know how to use it is it still a good deal?

Take this for example lets say a new semi-truck building company comes out with a great new semi truck for one third the price of its lowest competitor. Sure the truck would be a great price but if you don't actually have a license to drive it and have no contacts or experience as a trucker will it still be a good deal?

DP's that have gone out and bought cameras are going to want people to rent theirs, not use the directors. So we are very well headed towards a huge glut of red cameras. How much is a red one going to be worth and rent for when you go on set and the DP has a red the 1st AC has a red the 2nd AC has a red the director has a red the sound guy has a red and most of the SPFX dept and PA's have reds?

Doesn't anyone else see how crazy it is for a bunch of non camera people to be buying cameras? If it is not your plan to actually learn the craft of the camera dept and do the job don't buy a red camera. Right now you never see a writer or director with next to no camera experience that owns a viper or film camera. If all these people with no camera experience buy reds the camera will be de-valued like crazy and people are going to find themselves owning a camera they do not have the knowledge to properly use that will sit and collect dust and rent for $200 a day because everyone around has the camera. Then the rentals will all end up going to rental houses with reds or DP's with cameras. If you do not have a bit of camera experience and contacts the camera will be a poor investment.

Now before a bunch of people tell me how high demand will be for the first 18 months I really question that. Especially at the production pace that is planned. The cameras Just came out last Friday and I posted the need for a camera for a commercial at approximately HD camera rental prices (not the huge #'s many have predicted). With only 50 cameras that will even be out and available at that time I received a huge response of interested people. What do you think will happen when there are 500 or even 2,000 cameras in circulation?

Supply and Demand dictate everything in bussiness and with a bunch of people with next to no experience or contacts thinking that a red is going to be a great investment it simply will not be if everyone around owns one.

[Yannick Hagman]

That's exactly what I said before. Rental prices will go down as hell, because it will be so widely available. That's a good thing. But why should a director own one then? He always will need a gifted DP. And in the end, if you're not going for commercials with big screen distribution: There isn't much advantage at all. Given that there are a zillion more important things in your film than cameras. At the bottom line it's the story or idea (for commercials) that counts a heck more.

It possibly makes sense for someone who shoots by himself. But not if he spents his last money on it, or even finances it on credit cards like some guys here. Then I would rather recommend him getting some good actors and a DP with the money.

[Paul Hazlett]

There are many more pieces to consider,

is the director or the sound guy going to lay out the other 30,000 dollars
for stix, lenses, monitors, batteries, etc.

The camera is only one part of the equation.

I already have a plenty of gear and my red will run about 40k

[Zack Birlew]

Ummm... independents, students, even top productions can benefit from the RED at this price point. Sure there's going to be 2,000+ cameras in circulation by next summer, so what? I may be the only person at UNLV buying a RED, but there's about 1,000 other people in the film program that can't or don't want to or simply don't care/know about the RED. Pretty soon, they'll probably want to use a RED camera for their shoot and they're going to need a RED to rent, it certainly won't be mine since I'll be focused on my own projects, so the rental house in town should be pretty busy then. Heck, not many can even afford the $200 a day for some of the higher end cameras, heck, I'm not even sure how they could afford an HVX200 setup based on what a lot of rental places set its price at.

Really, I think you're kind of losing touch with the actual price of $17,500+ for just the camera and how many people there are that can actually afford that.

[ericyoung]

No point in worrying about it - you can't ban people from buying Red if they want to, although you might advise them against it.

And even if the director has their own, it just means you have a spare on set for free, a second camera or more if you want to shoot multicamera, or one you can have permanently on a Steadicam saving time swapping it between tripod and stabiliser.

And who's to say that more directors and other owners might not want to shoot personal low budget projects and want to learn the skills to do that on their own. Owning a camera lets them have the necessary time with the equipment to do so. Renting just doesn't allow that.

Any project with a real budget will still want more than one body as a backup.

Could go on, but don't think it'll really cause Red to drop in value. There are far more people wanting Red than will be on the market for quite some time.

Besides, those 2000 cameras are spread all over the world.

[Martin Jäger]

in the end it matters if you can sell a good product (film) - just by owning a red cam doesn't necessarely mean that you suddenly make the best movies in the world.

well, the price of the red cam is one of the most important key-points - so many people will have access to it. but don't forget that you are one of them!

just trying to give you another perspective..


greetings
martin

[Tonaci Tran]

There is no doubt that demand will go down accordingly with bigger supply..however two things will be an advantage to certain red owners. First is how rounded the package is. To have a complete package, you obviously the accessories, drives/flash media, evf/lc, lenses, tripod..etc. Combined, these extras cost as much, if not more than the camera. Second, the expertise to use the camera. If I was a director who had some shoot to do and if I had no experience with RED, I would want to get a package that included a DIT to make sure things run smoothly.

Back to your points Finner, I agree with what you are saying about how ridiculous it would be for someone to drop coin on a camera they don't plan on learning how to use. I still, however, think that the the type of red buyers you are describing will represent the minority.

[kmikami]

Doesn't anyone else see how crazy it is for a bunch of non camera people to be buying cameras?

Yes, crazy for them! Great for those of us who hope to rent a Red at rock bottom prices in a couple of years. :devil:

I think working DPs will be fine.

[Jochen Schmidt-Hambrock]

Hey Finner,

wellcome to my world (music production). After ProTools came out and producing music was possible for 1/10th of its former budgets, a lot of studios went down (mostly after installing ProTools in a last ditch effort).

Everybody and their pets started a music production (and in my field - soundtracks - I suddenly had to compete with actors and directors trying to do my job.)

It took a while for everybody to notice that its not that easy, and I´m sure this will happen with DOPíng. Surly faster because it is such a big effort to shoot a movie....actors being necessary, and all that.......

So, ..... you´re right but its going to get better in a year or two - after it will have gotten worse. (sorry, is this english?)

Jochen

[sander kamp]

I really don't agree.

First of all, why would this camera be so hard to operate? You're shooting raw with a high dynamic range, that only makes things easier. Proper focussing will be a problem but it is something you can learn, certainly with the instant feedback that shooting digital gives you. If directors want to buy this camera then let them. They will do their own little projects or learn from playing with the camera. What's wrong with that? Making good movies is difficult but that's a whole different story.

RED cameras in abundance? Time will tell. People will have to made aware that the camera exists and works before there is real demand for it. The market is certainly big enough if you consider the number of movies, television programs and commercials made worldwide.

Value drops like a stone? As long as people order new RED's and there is a waiting list (like there is now) the value of the camera will remain high, possibly even higher then new.

[David Battistella]

Hey guys I hear ya.

You have to look at the post production world for your answers. I mean specifically FINAL CUT PRO. When FCP came out, I heard the exact same arguments from editors who owned 100K plus edit systems. They were really SOL and the the rest is kind of history.

FCP recently announced that they have an installed user base of over 1 million worldwide. What is the lesson here.

Adapt and change.

You can't blame people for buying the technology and it has been my experience that people who are professional, talented and flexible ALWAYS excel at what they do.

I am sure that RED was never intended to be a closed system like Panavision or be unreachable like ARRI. This is all a part of the plan and this is the trend. DP's are just getting a taste now of what post has been getting squeezed out of for years.

It's designed as an open system and with that comes competition. When FCP came out, there were many producer/director/editors all of a sudden and people who were "editors" got a little freaked.

You can also be sure that if RED puts a dent in the competition, it won't only be RED's that are competing but every other copycat that comes down the pipe.

This said, I think I have come full circle. I've made films both ways and I think there is nothing better that "the right sized team" to make a film. The things that each KEY brings to the table is valuable and in the end, this is a social business not a "lone artist slogging away"(although it feels that way a lot of the time) trying to have a voice make films and get them out there.

The camera is a tool, that's it. People on the creative side are romantic about it, other people see it as a rental/business opportunity. You can be sure that at the price point RED wants to sell as many as possible. How that affects the market is not up to them. It's up to us.

David

[donatello b]

if the Viper was priced along side Red you might see some writers buying it ..
looking at it from another POV ...
how many writers, directors,producers, grips, PA's own DVX's , HVX, HDV, DVcams out there = you don't see the rental market falling to zippo or the cheap used prices ...AND if you look at your top tier rental houses they ask TOP $$ for those camera's ..

IMO it's the no budget's ( almost no $$) that there will be low rental prices!
perhaps the REDS will fall to the typical rental $ based on cost of equipment ? or below ?? ..... that is good for the low budgets ( they probably would not pay typical rental house prices - just like now they are not going to rent a HVX from Clairemont camera) ... a 10 mil budget is not going to rent from their PA ...
some might just keep their Reds as personal camera's ...

from the calls i've received - low budgets will take anything with a RED ( red lens , nikons, canons ... any tripod , FF, MB) ..however those with $$$ do not want Red, nikon, canon lens & they want a specific tripod, FF, MB ...

IMO whatever contacts you have that is where you'll do business ( I.E. if your contacts are all persons that do no budget that is who will call you ) ... if you have NO contacts then who do you call ? place ads on craigs list?

[Kevin Halverson]

I understand your concern, but how is this any different than someone with considerable fiscal resources going out and buying a super exotic sports car like an S7, Ford GT, F430 or similar? I would dare to say that most of the people who can afford these types of cars don't really have any ability to drive them (like they can be driven). Despite this, you don't see these same people offering their cars for rental at rates that match a Chevy Malibu just to pick up a few extra bucks.

While it is true that a great number of camera's may be under and or mis-utilized, I don't see their numbers hurting anything in the long run. If the bulk of owners help finance the development of the camera, those of us who do have real use for them should be happy that they have helped to reduce the costs of the camera's that we get to use.

Time will tell, but I am really not concerned at all.

[planet e]

who buys a camera because it is a great investment? it's a tool. like a hammer. or a paint brush. you make stuff with it. you either make good stuff, that you can sell, use, or enjoy. or else you don't. in which case, the tool will sit in the basement or be sold at a garage sale, doing no harm to anyone.

core rule of markets: market inefficiencies never last very long. if there is a market inefficiency, typically someone bigger and faster than you will probably have already recognized it and taken the advantage.

[number6]

Am I detecting an underlying fear that all that training that many have invested time and money in, is becoming obsolete? Is the thread starter here worrying that he is becoming redundant?

Using a truck analogy... driving a truck is hard. You have double digit gears, in many cases, to go through before getting up to speed. But on the other hand, a sports car is easy to drive. Just put the shifter in D and push the accelerator.

I think anyone who is spending much time on Reduser.net is probably committed and by now, well-enough informed to make that decision (to buy or not to buy a RED... to buy or not to buy some useless equally costly toy instead)

The new paradigm for movie-making is get a good story, a red, a red zoom, record your takes to compact flash in Redcode Raw, do your due diligence in post, present your work. If it is any good, it will sell. If not, and if the experience deters the adventurer, then the camera will sell to another adventurer.

There will still be a need for those who have invested heavily in old out-dated (now) equipment, so they should not worry about being swept away for a few more years. I certainly understand wanting to discourage anyone from joining the army that will trample you in the future, but maybe instead of railing against that army, it would be best to learn their tactics and make the transition.

At any rate, please stop the elitism.

[Jim Exton]

Finner, I completely agree with you.

Get the money while you can because in 6 months a complete Red package will go for $500 a day.

[canred]

I agree that some of the people on this forum that are spending every last nickel and even going into debt to buy a red are taking a big gamble. A gamble I wouldn't take. For someone like me though it really makes perfect sense. I am shooting a feature in the spring and the flexibility this camera gives and the savings as opposed to film make it a bargain.

After I'm done,and I intend other projects, I can sell it or keep it and use it as a right off. The money I'm spending on this camera is such a small percentage of the total cost that it really doesn't even register. On the other hand, the cost of renting a film camera, processing and the logistics involved with film do register.

The other reason this camera makes sense for me is that it affords the luxury of experimentation at virtually no cost. It also allows me the ability to shoot all my additional footage and whatever I wish without having to worry about rental and film costs.

I like the idea of working at my own pace without being tethered to a rental place and a processing house with the accompanying time lines and costs. It makes for a much more relaxed and stress free work environment.

Tom

[Jochen Schmidt-Hambrock]

At any rate, please stop the elitism.

Uh oh, and that in a business that thrives on elitism.....
(not that I have a problem with that ;-))

Jochen

[red1225]

I hope this got a few peoples attention. I see a major problem comming down the pipe. I first responded this in a thread to a writer director that has very little camera experience and is buying 2 red's.

I just have to point out something that seems a little problematic to me. There are a bunch of people that are writers or directors or film hopefuls with little to no camera experience buying one or more cameras. It just does not make a lot of sense. There are also DP's buying cameras that actually know how to use the gear (I am a director/DP with a few years experience). It just seems absolutely crazy to me that a bunch of people that barely know the basics of a camera think it is a good idea and investment to own one. I know the camera is a good price in comparison to other cameras but if you really do not know how to use it is it still a good deal?

Take this for example lets say a new semi-truck building company comes out with a great new semi truck for one third the price of its lowest competitor. Sure the truck would be a great price but if you don't actually have a license to drive it and have no contacts or experience as a trucker will it still be a good deal?

DP's that have gone out and bought cameras are going to want people to rent theirs, not use the directors. So we are very well headed towards a huge glut of red cameras. How much is a red one going to be worth and rent for when you go on set and the DP has a red the 1st AC has a red the 2nd AC has a red the director has a red the sound guy has a red and most of the SPFX dept and PA's have reds?

Doesn't anyone else see how crazy it is for a bunch of non camera people to be buying cameras? If it is not your plan to actually learn the craft of the camera dept and do the job don't buy a red camera. Right now you never see a writer or director with next to no camera experience that owns a viper or film camera. If all these people with no camera experience buy reds the camera will be de-valued like crazy and people are going to find themselves owning a camera they do not have the knowledge to properly use that will sit and collect dust and rent for $200 a day because everyone around has the camera. Then the rentals will all end up going to rental houses with reds or DP's with cameras. If you do not have a bit of camera experience and contacts the camera will be a poor investment.

Now before a bunch of people tell me how high demand will be for the first 18 months I really question that. Especially at the production pace that is planned. The cameras Just came out last Friday and I posted the need for a camera for a commercial at approximately HD camera rental prices (not the huge #'s many have predicted). With only 50 cameras that will even be out and available at that time I received a huge response of interested people. What do you think will happen when there are 500 or even 2,000 cameras in circulation?

Supply and Demand dictate everything in bussiness and with a bunch of people with next to no experience or contacts thinking that a red is going to be a great investment it simply will not be if everyone around owns one.


Well...unfortunately this is what the video and digital world has done to the film market years ago. Any asshole out there with a video camera was now a dp. The real craft of cinema has died years ago.

It's a free country...don't get your panties in a bunch over who owns the camera. If you do good work it will show. There are thousands of productions going on at various levels and only a few thousand cameras world wide that will be available over the next year or so.

Just to let you know...I'm not a writer or director defending there purchase. I will defend the right to a free and open market place.

[Keith Alan Morris]

Finner, I agree. Thats why i was honest when that little poll came out saying what you will rent your Red for. There will be just too many out there competing for work to get a good day rate, especially come the new year.

When the time comes, I know to shoot early, I'm going to offer a crazy deal--let me shoot with yours in Dec for two weeks, I'll loan you mine for 4 weeks after Feb.

[Shawn Nelson]

Finner, I completely agree with you.

Get the money while you can because in 6 months a complete Red package will go for $500 a day.

IF that happens, it won't happen until at least the end of 2008. In six months time, they won't even have all the cameras shipped, there will still be a backorder.

Maybe when there's 5,000 Reds on the market and there is no wait time at the factory (i.e. you can just call them up and have one mailed to you).

In the end it comes down to talent and connections.

[Sean]

Am I detecting an underlying fear that all that training that many have invested time and money in, is becoming obsolete? Is the thread starter here worrying that he is becoming redundant?

Using a truck analogy... driving a truck is hard. You have double digit gears, in many cases, to go through before getting up to speed. But on the other hand, a sports car is easy to drive. Just put the shifter in D and push the accelerator.

I think anyone who is spending much time on Reduser.net is probably committed and by now, well-enough informed to make that decision (to buy or not to buy a RED... to buy or not to buy some useless equally costly toy instead)

The new paradigm for movie-making is get a good story, a red, a red zoom, record your takes to compact flash in Redcode Raw, do your due diligence in post, present your work. If it is any good, it will sell. If not, and if the experience deters the adventurer, then the camera will sell to another adventurer.

There will still be a need for those who have invested heavily in old out-dated (now) equipment, so they should not worry about being swept away for a few more years. I certainly understand wanting to discourage anyone from joining the army that will trample you in the future, but maybe instead of railing against that army, it would be best to learn their tactics and make the transition.

At any rate, please stop the elitism.

In the near future, everyone will be replaceable except the creative talent.

[Gunleik Groven]

I really don't get paid for my equipment today, and don't really expect that to change when the red comes.

The little (and hasslefull) rental I do, I do it mostly to serve projects that wouldn't otherwise be flying.

When people rent me, they basically rent me, and whatever equipment I choose to use.

Red only means it's stupid not to use Red, as it is available at a new pricepoint...

It doesn't mean much more (but that's still a lot, though...)

So my idea is more like:
not having Red is a negative selling point, more than that Red is a selling point.

Gunleik
(still enthusiastic, though -;)

[Joel Kaye]

Now before a bunch of people tell me how high demand will be for the first 18 months I really question that.

A lot of good points. I think we're going to have a lot more multicamera shoots where RED shows up for free and the operator or DIT gets paid.

You sure won't want to try to be making a living with a HVX-200 after RED's out there. Everybody else is going to be in worse shape than a RED owner. News guys with their Sony's will probably be safer than anyone.

If you don't love shooting or you're not a rental house I can't see where RED makes much sense. Even though I consider myself a director first I love to shoot (and color correct) and I like to be out on sets. And not just for a buck. It's my idea of fun. So there's the problem in a nutshell. A lot of people love to shoot and they are going to want a RED instead of a new sports car if that's what it comes down to.

I think resale prices on RED will actually remain pretty good for a couple years. The new business model for a low budget movie might be "go buy 2 REDs, shoot for 3 months whenever you can and then sell the REDs." No expensive insurance, no rental inconvenience and if you lose a few grand on the deal it was still cheaper than renting. So there's another factor working against the rental market.

The *wildcard* - If everything currently shot for hire on DV, HDV goes RED then RED demand will be high. I think wedding shooters will kill with a RED. What girl doesn't want her wedding to look like a movie? And it might be the best low light camera on the market.

Hmm... rental houses may see a lot fewer big lights go out the door when you can light RED with ambient, china balls and 300's. Which puts an electrician out of business.

Yep - RED could change everything.

[M.Halsell]

Technology has democratized many other industries. It just happens that the cinematic industry is now squarely in the crosshairs. Successful storytelling will never be a commodity. RED is simply a facilitator of the storytelling process.

Those of us coming from an elitist environment will need to attitude adjust as the rest of the world is already doing, both inside and outside of the industry.

RED is not be critized for the tool that it is. The designated craftspeople will carry forward, refine and secure the essential skillset/knowledge base of storytelling for the forthcoming generations that will be more acclimated and comfortable with digital mediums.

For every winner there has to be a loser. Clearly, we must each determine where we fit along that sliding scale.

[Rick Darge]

In the near future, everyone will be replaceable except the creative talent.


*ahem... uh, CGI ?

Robots Will Take Over Hollywood

..one day

[Tim H.]

If it were only that simple :)

There is a huge difference between shooting with an HVX and a sytem like Red, Viper, 35mm Arri/Panavision, etc. When "video" filmmakers first try to use a "35mm" type system they scratch their head and ask, why are all my shots out of focus?

Assuming you own Red camera and would like to shoot your own film, what happens when you need to shoot scenes with more coverage? Action scenes, 1 take shots, even intimate dialogue scenes? Will you RENT your B and C cameras? Ahh, the rental market.

Lets say you want to shoot that movie you have been dreaming about, you have the best story ever and the stars are aligned....So assuming the movie is great - What happens when you show up to sell it and it was shot on an HVX? What happens when you show up with a nice 35mm or Sony F900 version? Your chances go way up. How much does it cost to rent an Arri for 30 days? F900 for 30 days? Panavision for 30 days? Now actually owning the Red starts to make sense.

You don't have to be a DP to own a Red. You could just be a writer or producer who wants to see your indy films made. It still makes sense on a financial level to own it rather than rent it (even if Red rentals are low). You never know when you might have the opportunity to do a pickup shoot, or grab a shot when you don't have the rental.

From a DP point of view - as I said earlier there is a big difference between DP'n on a HVX (or other small format CCD/CMOS) and something that more closely resembles larger format (35mm, 2/3", Super 35, etc). How you light, how you focus, how you accessories the camera, how you mount it, how you move it and on and on. So if you are a DP that wants to be the best at your craft, wouldn't it be nice to break out the Red at any time (even family trips) grab those sunsets, practice your craft and sharpen your skills?

Even successful wedding photographers could carve out a high end market. The better the "wedding video" looks the better the bride looks ;)

Anyway, sorry for the rant but I don't see the value of Red going anywhere. Maybe Sony won't like it when their F900's don't sell anymore but that is better for us all. The monopoly on high end, quality gear has gone on for far too long. While editing systems like FCP and ProTools have emerged for the software side of things the hardware (cameras, lenses) is nothing but a price gouge. Think about lenses. My Canon 24-70mm 2.8 L lens resolves a pretty damn nice 4368x2912 image on my Canon 5D. The lens being around 1K in price. How much is a HD/Cine lens? Even if you take out the extra amount for the zoom servos, etc: http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/shop/2672/Lenses_HDTV_Cine_Lenses.html

WOW.

[vanguy]

I think all this is, with respect, slightly paranoid. Sony's XDCam (the F330 sells for a similar price to the Red) has sold over 60,000 units. You don't see the floor dropping out of rental prices. Lots of DPs owned Arri 16 SRII's and the rental houses didn't go running for cover.

If this is going to be a problem, it's not going to be for awhile yet. There has to be hundreds of thousands of units out there for any firesale to happen.

And when it does, your experienc will be like mine was. I was one of the editors who got killed when the bottom dropped out of NLE prices (because of FCP), but you learn to change and adapt. It becomes about skills, not equipment. And if it's about equipment, it's about the thousand little bits that make up a totally flexible package, the expensive add-ons, the custom hand-built accessories, an outfit that works flexibly and works hard. But mostly it's about whether you can deliver.

It's only scary for the people who don't know what they're doing. Or the guys who thought they'd buy a toy and make boatloads of money without having to learn how to use it properly.

[Stephen Williams]

Hi Finner,

If your prediction come true, I will shortly have a camera for below cost price & without waiting more than a year!

Stephen

[TimPipher]

I think you'll find Red is already the bargain product and a terrific value. It's probably not the Red prices that will come down, but the other over-valued (and now over-priced) cameras.

In fact, it's possible that as the word of Red gets out, demand for the camera will increase, and Red will increase their prices. As other high-end cameras drop towards Red, Red may rise toward them, meeting at some point in the middle.

In my opinion, it's not the Red owners who should worry about dropping prices, but the owners of higher priced cameras.

[Finner]

I think some of what I said may have been misunderstood by some.

First the title was my way of getting attention to the thread which it did. When I say the value will drop I mean much more in the rental prices then the actual sellable price of a used red although when the rental prices are low the sellable price of the camera will inevitably go down.

As for people that state that experienced camera people are worried and just trying to instill fear well thats just crazy. I for one have my reel and contacts and relationships that go back years. I would get work with or without owning a red so I am not that worried at all for myself. I personally feel much worse for inexperienced dilusional future red owners that think they will be able to rent their gear all the time or that it will be their ticket in. Like many have said their is a lot more to a movie then the camera.

Simply there are going to be some hurting possibly even bankrupt people who very ignorantly thought owning a red camera would be the answer to all their problems. Myself I will get work as I always do and my red will come in tow not the other way around that I get work because of the camera. It is the "I will get work or rentals because of the camera" that is the main problematic thought here. Like I said I will get work so other then camera rental values going in the tank because of ignorant uninformed buyers I don't really care. All I see it doing is filling e-bay with a bunch of cheap reds that people are desperate to get rid of.

For those that are students or have a bigger project planned I totally understand your plans to buy a camera. It's just even if you have a big project planned why not put the money on the screen and save on the camera by hiring one of the many DOP's that will give a good deal on themselves with their camera package.

Shawn by the way I think your thought that demand will be huge until after 2008 is way off.

[jbeale]

What girl doesn't want her wedding to look like a movie? And it might be the best low light camera on the market.

Ok, but right now the majority of the wedding market is still in transition from DV to HDV. I think there are only a few operators in the whole country who could use a Red to capture a wedding as well as they could with a camcorder (fully manual, remember- no autofocus and super-critical DOF- uncontrolled light, untrained 'talent' and no retakes!). AND after all that, you have to do more of the CC work in post that a camcorder would have done for you while shooting. Don't discount the real skill it takes to use Red- people don't upgrade themselves as fast as the technology does. Personally, I don't see RED as a major player in the wedding market anytime soon. A few at the very high end and that's it, I suspect.

[Ken Willinger]

I think it may be a somewhat elitist position to take regarding who should have the camera. I’m in agreement with Finner in that those who have no experience working in the camera department are going to be way over their heads with this camera. I also think that a lot of people buying do not readily understand the scope of investment they are making. To have a real complete package, it’s at a minimum an investment of 30K (and that is a bare minimum). To get the whole banana it’s an outlay of 60K (with all RED glass…and I know the majority of my clientele will not look at the Nikon or Canon adapter as a professional glass option). This doesn’t include any support and grip gear or lights. Over the years I have amassed a pretty good package, which has cost on the order of about 200K (not including camera/glass). I could never have put my package together in one shot. It’s taken 13 years as a freelancer (and I’ve been in the biz since ’79).

My guess is that many buyers are going to realize what they have got themselves into after they have this amazing tool sitting in their living room. If you do not have a business plan, if you are not currently an owner operator and have contacts with people and production companies who will use your services, and if you are not independently wealthy, my guess is your camera will be on the used market in fairly short order. This is not being elitist. This is being realistic. I’ve seen this business gobble people up.

When Sony came out with its first HD cam, I knew a news freelancer who took out a Sony loan and bought it. He was counting on being the first freelancer in the region to offer HD. Nobody used him. He wasn’t a great DP to begin with and having that camera didn’t make him any better. Sony took back the camera and he lost a lot of money. I’m told he’s painting houses these days. Just because you have the camera does not mean you will work it.

But again, if you don’t play, you can’t win. If you have the money there is nothing stopping anyone from buying the camera. Equal opportunity in purchasing. Not so much in getting hired as a professional with a complete working kit.

[Steve Gal]

Bottom line, it's all in the accessories. A set of cooke S4's cost alot of money and that is just the beginning. Productions are going to want the best accessories and the rental houses will be busy renting accessories for a camera they do not own. It is happening now with the PS Technik pro and mini 35 and the redrock. People are able to afford these cheap gadgets and use it on a cheap HDV video camera. Now they want more so they rent all of the accessories. In the end, it will generate more business.

www.duallcamera.com

[Finner]

Hi Finner,

If your prediction come true, I will shortly have a camera for below cost price & without waiting more than a year!

Stephen

I know that has been your plan for a while Stephen and it is probably a good one.

[number6]

I also think that a lot of people buying do not readily understand the scope of investment they are making.

My guess is that many buyers are going to realize what they have got themselves into after they have this amazing tool sitting in their living room.

The hundred dollar laptop project gives a laptop to a first grade (or below) level child who has never had any exposure to technology before. With no help or training, the child is up and running in ten minutes time.

Surely future RED ouners are smarter than a first grader, and can figure out how to make it go ZOOOOMMMMM!

[Joel Kaye]

Ok, but right now the majority of the wedding market is still in transition from DV to HDV. A few at the very high end and that's it, I suspect.

I think that was intended to be my point. Skilled moviemakers could probably make a killing doing weddings for the wealthy.

DV to HDV doesn't matter. It's not that big a leap in quality. Look at a high quality uprez with RedGiant's InstantHD of a well shot DVX-100 and compare it to a HVX-200. Prepare to be depressed if you own an HVX. I don't think average consumers care. Shoot them with whatever. They are price shopping anyhow.

Focusing logistics...
Go in with 3 or 4 cameras. One is wide and locked off so it's always in focus. Choreograph the other cameras. Weddings are very slow moving so even focus on the other cameras should be pretty easy.

Now think about the dynamic range of RED. Black Tux's and White gowns. Brilliant flowers everywhere.

Yeah - $15 - $20k for 4 guys working 2 days. Everybody teams up on the set and post for the edit. Professional Film makers only.

[Finner]

are you guys dp's or rental houses? who cares if the catering guy has a red.. can you light a set better then him? red will be not that hard to turn on, set aperture, and slap a lens on front. I think alot of the older dp's or wanna be dp's are worried because they might not be as good as the film student who now has access to amazing gear.
DT

It is easy to see you have little to no experience with producers Relationships and experience is key. Producers often are a nervous breed that I have seen many times over hire the "old safe" option over someone they would even admit to saying they see more promise and skill in. It sucks but it is just the way this bussiness most often works. I myself fought for years and not until winning a few commercial awards did producers start to really give me a chance.

[Finner]

The hundred dollar laptop project gives a laptop to a first grade (or below) level child who has never had any exposure to technology before. With no help or training, the child is up and running in ten minutes time.

Surely future RED ouners are smarter than a first grader, and can figure out how to make it go ZOOOOMMMMM!

What are you talking about computers for? Yours does not even have a "W" on the keypad!!

[Álex Montoya]

When Sony came out with its first HD cam, I knew a news freelancer who took out a Sony loan and bought it. He was counting on being the first freelancer in the region to offer HD. Nobody used him. He wasn’t a great DP to begin with and having that camera didn’t make him any better. Sony took back the camera and he lost a lot of money. I’m told he’s painting houses these days.

Wow, that's a pretty good horror story.

I am perceiving a mixture of fear and patronizing attitudes. There sure is people that are making a bad purchase here, but I believe that they are an almost insignificant minority.

And don't worry about the rental prices. Just charge the normal 1 to 1,5% for the package and you should be fine.

[Ken Willinger]

The hundred dollar laptop project gives a laptop to a first grade (or below) level child who has never had any exposure to technology before. With no help or training, the child is up and running in ten minutes time.

Surely future RED ouners are smarter than a first grader, and can figure out how to make it go ZOOOOMMMMM!

Then no doubt within minutes of having the RED camera they will be great DPs.

[vidalsosa]

Hi Finner,

If your prediction come true, I will shortly have a camera for below cost price & without waiting more than a year!

Stephen

e` tu Stephen?

[Thomas Mathai]

Here's the simplest answer:

Just learn to use it.

Anything is learnable, if you have the interest and passion.

That may not mean everyone is at the same talent level, but being a competent camera person isn't impossible.

[number6]

What are you talking about computers for? Yours does not even have a "W" on the keypad!!

It does, but I forgot uhere it is:w00t:

[number6]

Then no doubt within minutes of having the RED camera they will be great DPs.

non! but in time they may out-dp those who now, dp. My point was, you appeared to be making assessments based on the status quo. The status quo is not relevant because a millisecond later there is a new status quo. You may have simply been projecting your oun fears onto those who are future RED ouners and users and in some cases, your fears may apply. But you cannot be sure. Besides, failure is one of the most important parts of life... all life, along with success. Without failure there would be no disappearance of the weak, and without success, there would be no measure of the strong. (wow, did I write that? I think I may have missed my calling. I may go into preaching.)

[Marcus Lundahl]

Prediciting the second-hand value for any product is pretty hard. And I agree that maybe rental prices will go down.

But...I really think it's up to each person to decide why he wants to buy a red.

I'm buying mine to document my family and simply because it seems like a great toy!

I am fully aware that it is not a point and shoot thing. But I will enjoy every moment of the process, learning how to light a interview shot, learning how to color correct the footage, and while doing this, knowing that I am getting the best possible quality available right now.

/Marcus

[Jeff Kilgroe]

*ahem... uh, CGI ?

Robots Will Take Over Hollywood

..one day

I thought that already happened...


Anyway, some good points raised from different perspectives in here. Personally, I don't think the rental value of RED One is going to be that high. A few early adopters may be able to occasionally get a nice rental premium when renting to the right person, but I think on an industry-wide scale we're not going to see people shelling out huge amounts to rent a $17.5K camera body.

By the time most of the camera's features are enabled and good workflow practices are somewhat established, the majority of initial reservations will be filled. So there will be a fair number of cameras out in the wild by the time industry demand really kicks in, IMO. ...I think we already had this discussion a few weeks back and it got pretty ugly.

I really question anyone who is buying a RED and thinking that renting it out is going to play a dominant role in their business model. RED makes sense for existing rental houses, but not for individual owner/operators to generate rental income from a camera or two. Especially if they have small kits to go with the camera(s). Sure, rentals will bring in some cash flow when the camera is not in use in-house, but one has to consider the associated risks and wear on the equipment to go along with it. I'm also not so sure about the renting out RED and offering oneself as a DIT with the camera. Many reservation holders talk about doing this...

As for hobbyists and budding filmmakers buying RED.. More power to them and I salute them. RED is a production tool like anything else. We have seen power shifts occur in many industries over the years and we're now seeing it in the high-end film/video production industry. The buy-in price for a top of the line camera body is no longer $100K, it's $18K and the associated costs of film stock and processing have been removed from much of the production pipeline. There are still many associated costs in terms of back-up, archival, etc.. And I think many people are in for a shock in that regard.

For a hobbyist or indie, RED makes a lot of sense... Even for those with little industry experience. And there's all levels and types of productions that could benefit from RED. I know a family that does nothing but shoot weddings and family events. They are seriously interested in a RED purchase -- probably three cameras. They are new to the industry, only have been doing it about two years and currently do quite well with two HVX200s and a DVX100. If RED places a top-end camera system within their budget, it can be both a learning and a production tool. Everyone has to start from somewhere, usually at the bottom. I really doubt that most of the inexperienced buying the camera will have trouble learning to operate it. If they're plunking down $20K or more for a RED package, they have at least some interest in using the camera. The real question is do they have an "eye" for it? Can they light? Can they consistently frame a good shot? Can the edit? Can they tell a story?

Some of the most creative video/film pieces I have ever seen have come from "amateurs" with nothing more than home video cameras. I've also seen major productions that show "professional" camera work no better than what I see from the local high school video and film club...

RED is in no way going to make anyone a gifted DP overnight and anyone who thinks that buying RED will instantly make them one is obviously foolish. But RED is most certainly a good opportunity for these people to become a good DP if they can afford to use RED and its advantages to hone their skills and become a competent cinematographer through practice and dedication.

[Joel Kaye]

Relationships and experience is key

Buying a RED and using the hell out of it for a year to gain experience and start building relationships and a nice reel could work.

I think the other side of this equation is if there's a massive influx of good content that sells for cheap from unknowns then current producers will get creamed. They won't be hiring old pros at top dollar because they won't understand how to make a buck in this market.

Obviously no consumer cares who produced the content, how long they've been working together etc.. I believe movie stars are massively overvalued and overrated. TV has long shown you can put up a show with a bunch of people you don't know and it can become popular. Reality TV does it every week. If that doesn't prove the concept is bigger than the star I don't know what does. (Good acting matters.... and reality tv talent acts REAL)

What if RED causes a giant shift in production away from LA based companies. And 750 RED's are sitting in LA. It's already happened that the old 3 million dollar movie is now $300,000. That number's going to slide down further.

Here's what could happen. Underemployed Writers, Directors, Shooters, Actors, VFX Gurus are going to team up and cut everyone else out they possibly can. Face it, writing and on screen talent are where the rubber meets the road in this business. They'll take part ownership of the content and either sell back to the studio or take it to the market directly.

Talent will win. The real fallout will take many years.

[SF Geek]

Why do people keep assuming that you'll get hired as a DP solely on your talent now that the Red has come out? Producers hire who they know. They don't set up a contest called "American DP" (place your country's name where applicable) where there is a skill contest and the best DP wins based on talent alone, oh and the fact that they have a Red camera. I knew a DP who was better than I was, that won awards even, and I got more work because I had the contacts and the business sense to make the right connections. That is the way this business works and Red will not change it. There have always been great DP's right out of film school. That doesn't mean they will be able to make a living out of it.

[Ken Willinger]

My point was, you appeared to be making assessments based on the status quo.
The only assessments I make are based on experience. Everybody needs some. Whether the outcome is good or bad has a lot to do with heeding the advice of those who have it. Fortunately for me I have. But like I said before...you can't win if you don't play. Good luck.

[SF Geek]

Joel. Your point works for TV because there is already an output and marketing budget. Film does not work the same way. Stars are still the best investment in making money. That's why most people go to see movies. They want to see an actor they like. They don't go because of the Director, usually, and they definately don't go for the cinematography!

[David Battistella]

I personally feel much worse for inexperienced dilusional future red owners that think they will be able to rent their gear all the time or that it will be their ticket in. Like many have said their is a lot more to a movie then the camera.

Simply there are going to be some hurting possibly even bankrupt people who very ignorantly thought owning a red camera would be the answer to all their problems.


Yes,

This is true. It think there might be a few people gambling on that for sure. I think if I was a twenty something DP, I might invest in this camera if I was trying to build a career. It's a good tool, we can all agree o that.

As for rental prices dropping, there is one very important thing to consider. This is the only 4K camera available. If people want to shoot inferior quality they can be my guest, rent any other digital solution for 500$ per day, if you think it will make better (but not larger or higher quality) images.

I think the fear might be that people will be charging DVX rates to "pad" their reel or pay off their camera, but anyone paying DVX rates probably isn't taking the image that seriously anyway.

David

[Chris Parker]

I'm also not so sure about the renting out RED and offering oneself as a DIT with the camera. Many reservation holders talk about doing this...


I would love for you to expand on that statement. I find this thread extremely interesting, as I hold reservations on two reds and plan on renting them (along with accessories and video assist capabilities) as a package to my clients, with me as the DIT. Well, not really a DIT, but a Data Management guy. Since the RED shoots RAW, a true DIT isn't as needed as the DOP can set the exposure and know that the telecine will be done LATER. Just like film.

I am wondering if I will be able to rent my 'digital camera truck' enough to make it a sound investment however. I have loads of clients that use me all the time, and have for the past 10 years. Not as a camera guy, but as a video assist guy.

When Fincher went to the Viper, it was his video guy who he encouraged to learn the sTwo digital workflow, as it is a natural position for us video monkeys.

I am pretty confident that my clients will use me and my bulletproof system when they decide to shoot RED. (I work 100% high end commercials by the way)

BUT, I have lingering doubts. Can I compete with the rental houses? Will I drop $150K on a package that doesn't make me money? I am still heavily leaning towards doing it, but I would love to hear your expanded thoughts on the statement you made there. Cheers.

[vidalsosa]

While there might be some merits to the original post and a few other perspectives out here, I really don't see how most of the issues raised here help move the intended debate forward, moreso with the tone of the argument slanting toward scuttling peoples ambitions and freewill - that, my friend is nobody's business, but their's.

From the last time I checked, this is still a free market society and people should be allowed to choose how and where they live, die and get buried, without them infringing upon others' "experienced" pedestal.

My 2c.

[Michael Schrengohst]

I love threads like this. Jim will start reading them and want to raise prices.
RED is a deal a $17,500....but most producers who talk about owning a RED
would not know how to change lenses, much less pull focus or know
how to expose anything. The biggest value any DP using a RED will have
is knowing the post workflow. Much like when a DP shows up at the
film to tape session. Adding value and showing producers that the real
cost is not what the day rental rate of the camera is.

[Jeff Kilgroe]

I would love for you to expand on that statement. I find this thread extremely interesting, as I hold reservations on two reds and plan on renting them (along with accessories and video assist capabilities) as a package to my clients, with me as the DIT. Well, not really a DIT, but a Data Management guy. Since the RED shoots RAW, a true DIT isn't as needed as the DOP can set the exposure and know that the telecine will be done LATER. Just like film.

Where I was mostly coming from with that statement is I see a lot of posters on here who talk about offering themselves as an assistant, DIT or even just a data guy with a very basic camera package. I've even seen more than one comment on how they will do this so they can watch other DP's use the camera and learn.

Skip, I think you're in a much better position. You already have an existing client base and you provide an existing set of solutions. If you incorporate RED, various aspects will no doubt change. Like you said, RED moves some issues into the realm of post and takes some jobs away from a DIT or AC. But I see plenty of new opportunities that can be offered with RED... How about archival and data storage specialties and facilities? Of course, I don't know your workflow now... If you're tape based, this is going to be a huge new aspect. If you're IT based with P2 or reusable XDCAM media, then it's the same issue, only on a larger scale.

I really don't know what's best for you and your business. That is for you to determine. But RED is definitely going to be a huge factor in the motion media industry in the near future. I don't know how much of a gamble you will be taking with a RED purchase, you mention$150K. That is a significant purchase, even for two RED cameras. Is there a way you could ease into the purchase and not blow the whole $150K up front? Such as buy the RED camera bodies and B4 (or other) lens adapters and enough media to get started. Integrate RED into your current workflow and see how it goes... If it works, expand on your RED infrastructure from there.

[Joel Kaye]

I had the contacts and the business sense to make the right connections. That is the way this business works and Red will not change it.

I don't think anyone has implied it'll be possible to buy a RED, be great and then hide in a closet and still get work.

Yeah, you'll have to have business sense to get work no matter what. Business sense beats talent all the time. But business sense COMBINED with talent is the real winner.

If you can't play well with others you're in the wrong field. A lot of talented people are doomed right there. You gotta be crazy enough to have talent but not so crazy you're actually crazy. Unless you're a hot actress. Apparently they can get away with anything.

I think the paradigm shift is that Hollywood is going to be competing with the rest of the world directly because of RED. The film industry truly only exists in a few cities around the world. If you want that look you had to go through one of those towns on some level, their labs, their posts houses, their studios, producers, rental houses and talent.

Hollywood itself is pretty safe in making blockbusters. They'll focus there. But the entire rest of the market is up for grabs.

[number6]

But like I said before...you can't win if you don't play. Good luck.

G'luck to you as well, although I doubt you will need it. Sounds like you have a business model that is well thought out and proven.

I'm just here defending the modern day "wildcatters" who know there is a risk, but have determined the reward is worth it. This was originally started when Finner tried to get Seung Han to reconsider whether he should buy two cameras without having been "in the business" for sufficient years to know the jargon.

But I've read many of Seung's posts and while he is not a deep-throated camera savvy guy, I would guess he has given much thought and effort into his Indie film project, overall. Finner may not have knoun this about him because Finner has been absent from this forum for quite awhile (glad you're back Finner...missed ya' big guy). Those who have skills that are in demand will of course, not be steamrolled by RED.

But I do think this is the beginning of things that most of us cannot imagine yet. The RED group has shoun what can be done in a short time, and once you show that remarkable things can be done, others start inventing remarkably, as well. (That caps it! I AM going to turn in my two REDS and become a preacher. The money's probably better anyway.)

[Greg Voevodsky]

Buying a RED and using the hell out of it for a year to gain experience and start building relationships and a nice reel could work.

I think the other side of this equation is if there's a massive influx of good content that sells for cheap from unknowns then current producers will get creamed. They won't be hiring old pros at top dollar because they won't understand how to make a buck in this market.

Obviously no consumer cares who produced the content, how long they've been working together etc.. I believe movie stars are massively overvalued and overrated. TV has long shown you can put up a show with a bunch of people you don't know and it can become popular. Reality TV does it every week. If that doesn't prove the concept is bigger than the star I don't know what does. (Good acting matters.... and reality tv talent acts REAL)

What if RED causes a giant shift in production away from LA based companies. And 750 RED's are sitting in LA. It's already happened that the old 3 million dollar movie is now $300,000. That number's going to slide down further.

Here's what could happen. Underemployed Writers, Directors, Shooters, Actors, VFX Gurus are going to team up and cut everyone else out they possibly can. Face it, writing and on screen talent are where the rubber meets the road in this business. They'll take part ownership of the content and either sell back to the studio or take it to the market directly.

Talent will win. The real fallout will take many years.

The problem Joel, is that LA (and NY second) are by far where all the real talent is. You do not see 20,000 actors going to Arizona to become a star or reality TV person. The top film schools are there, the studios are there, the distribution is there. LA like Silicon Valley have all the talent, resources, and money to do what they do best. Also, the movie BUSINESS is not only about the STARS but the DEALS. You will see more movies made based on a deal and not the quality script, attached unknown talent, red camera, etc.

It is indeed about wanting to work with people as Finner says - A studio allows Kevin Costner to make Dances with Wolves in exchange for him to star in Robin Hood. Movies are green lighted when the top talent is all packaged whether or not the script is even completed- sometimes it works like Gladiator or sometimes you get Showgirls, Last Action Hero, Waterworld, etc...

I would also note how many 100 million dollar grossing films come outside of Hollywood (including funding and distribution) - not many... Note: George Lucas started his career in LA and only through a one time deal (sequels and merchandise rights -that would never be given away now) was he able to move and create Hollywood North in Nor Cal. ;-) Notice, he still distributes his movies through LA studios. Lastly, many of his employees come out of LA after proving themselves in the trenches.

[Joel Kaye]

Joel. Your point works for TV because there is already an output and marketing budget. Film does not work the same way.

Outside of maybe 10 BIG STARS like Johnny Depp I don't think stars matter nearly as much as the IDEA of the movie. Hollywood has huge marketing outlets and they could pump "newcomers" very easily.

Stars don't open big movies all the time. Why does that EVER happen if stars matter so much. Pick your star... they've all had lousy opening weekends.

People go to see a good movie.

Who stars in Transfomers? I don't even know. Harry Potter? Yeah, there are great actors in there... but stars? I love Alan Rickman to death... but no kid knows him. Did we know any stars from Star Wars back in the day? Nope... not really. SAW... who was in that?

The Hollywood and foreign distribution system forces the use of stars by producers in order to sell a movie. That's totally different than the audience actually DEMANDING stars.

TV is the proof. The Internet is proof. The really talented funny unknown guy (askaninja.com) can garner more clicks than most stars.

I'm positive Hollywood could SACK every movie star, replace them with talented unknowns and go make the same blockbusters they make now and they wouldn't lose a dime. People want to see the comic book come alive... whether it's Meryl Streep up there or someone else. Just let it be good...

[John V]

Hey guys I need to point out to you one fact....RED ONE. First in a series of many or upgrades. This camera will change and as such I dont think RED is just going to sit around and do nothing in terms of coming out with new products. So if you worry about rental prices I think part of Jims plan was to lower rental price in the industry as a whole.

[Seung Han]

You guys are hysterical. Some of you guys are starting to sound like the grumpy naysayers at cinematography.com.

Nobody knows what somebody else has gone through in their past, their highs and lows, in deciding something in the present. Don't be so presumptuous that everybody buying this camera is in for a surprise because they won't have your experience and expertise. Don't underestimate somebody's drive to learn something. Even the people who made you this camera spent a considerable amount of time 'learning' about what was possible in building the Red. A lot of people were calling it a scam but a man who built sunglasses suddenly pulled the rug from under massive corps like Sony, JVC and Panny. They've said they did this from scratch in about a year and a half. Now you're on this board having bought a Red, using your experiences and expertise, telling other people who have bought one that they are in over their heads... One second, you're cheering the Red Team for doing the impossible and the next you're telling others that it's hopeless? Oh, the irony.

I remember reading somewhere that Francis Ford Coppola thought that because of the advances in image capturing some young fat girl with pigtails in Ohio was going to make the greatest film ever.

One thing I have learned in dealing with the 'industry' is that it is run by the lowest common denominator in human emotions, namely fear and greed. This thread just goes a long way to prove that.

"Oh no, the value of my Red is dropping!!!"

Hey, Duane Reade is now selling reams of paper and pens! Why don't we all go buy some and write the classic modern novel next week before we go ahead and make our masterpiece film!

[Justin Kirchhoff]

I don't think it'll be as bad as everyone thinks it will be. Even though there will be a bunch of cameras available to rent, they'll still need someone who knows how to use it....The demand will lower, but the skill won't necessarily go up with everyone that has a RED...I guarantee there'll be some shitty footage for all of us to shake our heads at.

[Paul Hazlett]

Hey, Duane Reade is now selling reams of paper and pens! Why don't we all go buy some and write the classic modern novel next week before we go ahead and make our masterpiece film!


heheh well said, hardware is no subsitute for talent.

No one is going to get rich off renting there Red, its just another tool in
the aresnal along with experience your own skill and connections

[number6]

Mr. Moderator.. I respectfully suggest that a thread is like a short story, and needs a good ending. How could you find a better ending than the 63 post? If you were to cut off debate after that post, then you could 5 stars by it and have a gem. After giving Finner due credit for starting it.

[Joel Kaye]

The problem Joel, is that LA (and NY second) are by far where all the real talent is. You do not see 20,000 actors going to Arizona to become a star or reality TV person.

Currently. Yeah - I basically agree with you. But what happens if the talent stops coming to LA because they can break nationally from their own town? A lot of film makers break from somewhere outside of LA... which is stunning by itself really.

You better hope you're right about talent consisting of such a tiny portion of the population that it literally ALL MOVED TO LA. We've got 3 million people in Phoenix. I need 200 talented actors. But even still - I can go cast in LA and bring key talent here. I just don't LA for literally ANYTHING else. That's what has to be scary.

A lot of people here are making that vinyl record industry mistake of assuming tomorrow looks like today. It doesn't man... everyone in Hollywood can be replaced by someone who can do it just as well for cheaper from somewhere else. Might be the same talent just moves... and buys a RED. What if the best writers and actor's strike out on their own?

I'm talking 5-20 years here. Not overnight. When google-on-demand HDTV service hits your set top box promoting indie content alongside network stuff it'll happen. When investors realize they can cut Hollywood out it'll happen.

[gdv]

And even if the director has their own, it just means you have a spare on set for free, a second camera or more if you want to shoot multicamera, or one you can have permanently on a Steadicam saving time swapping it between tripod and stabiliser.


If the producer has a second Red body which belongs to the director, who is giving it for free, then why should the producer pay you a full price?
This is exactly what will take prices down and with the rental prices going down the quality of the final product will go down too!

[Mark L. Pederson]

I fail to understand why ANY of this matters.

Supply and demand will dictate rental rates.

There will be people who buy this camera that NEVER learn how to shoot beautiful images.

There will be people who buy this camera and make really bad content.

Who cares?

It's the their money and it's a free country.

It's not like you have submit a reel to qualify to buy a Red camera - you just have to have the money.

I think lots of people are hung up on the "traditional rental model" that applies to pro video and film equipment.

That is going to change. Some big rental houses are already thinking about getting OUT of that business. You can expect some real shake ups a year from now.

As far as writers and directors becoming DP's ... well ... SOME will. And SOME will fall on their face.

Why debate it? Why worry about it?

Talent, expertise and perservarence will always rise to the surface.

I do think the "average" point-and-shoot owner/operators will have to step up - just owning a camera will NOT make you a tremendeous value in the marketplace if MANY own cameras.

[number6]

Mr. Moderator.. I respectfully suggest that a thread is like a short story, and needs a good ending. How could you find a better ending than the 63 post? If you were to cut off debate after that post, then you could 5 stars by it and have a gem. After giving Finner due credit for starting it.

(Sigh) Never mind... I thought this was a short story but it is apparently a 3 act play. (And a pretty good one at that)