Value of a "dead end" Red One?

[Tim Morten]

Definition of "dead end": not eligible for trade-in (ie - Stage 2 has been exercised).

Stage 2: $19500 (get Epic-x, keep your R1)

Stage 3: $10500 (get Epic-x, trade-in your R1)

Not factoring in the difference in Epic-X accessories between the stages, and not factoring in any MX upgrading on the R1, it seems like a "dead-end" Red One is worth $9000.

Thoughts?

- Tim

[Alexander Alexandrov]

to new comers to RED (which there will be more and more mainstream), i'd think its worth more than that while RED still sells RED One bodies Mysterium for 17.5k and no other bodies are easily available (getting a used one cheaper + saving tax is a plus). plus a lower serial number red purchased used will be MX eligible way sooner than a new one purchased now. MX RED is a powerful camera and it will be quite some time till Epics are easily purchasable by general public not participating in any stages. i think a lot of value estimate comes down to timing in months/weeks.

[Pawel Achtel]

Your assumption is that stage 2 and stage 3 will saturate the market. It may be wrong.

Your assumption is also forward looking, meaning this may be the future value of R1, but not now.

Even if the resale price of an "exercised" body goes down to $9k or $10k, it seems like a damn good retension of value in comparison to the depreciation of, say an HDCAM going from $70k to about zero in about the same time. Not to mention more expensive, comparable cameras like F35. After all, it is still the same, great camera shooting gorgeous 4k images with few competitors that come close.

And, of course, one has to account all the benefit of the full value upgrade path. It seems like Jim gave all early adopters a very generous deal to buy one and get one free.

[michael zaletel]

What I don't think people yet realize is that the RED ONE even with the Mysterium Sensor will still be good enough 20 years from now to shoot a feature film on. Nothing (besides a film camera) made in the last 20 years has ever had that same future potential.

Think about it.

-michael zaletel

[Ivan G]

I'm sure Jim and company has thought out marketing just as much as the technology put behind RED. After all Red can only cannibalize themselves. I'm not worried about the R1 going obsolete for a very long time and if it was going to happen then it should of already. This is beginning to get old. Red for life!

[Tim Morten]

Yeah, interesting phenomenon as a result of the generosity of Red. Apparently, some folks are offering up their cameras at prices in the $9k range in order to get their Epic sooner (Stage 2 instead of Stage 3). The window on Stage 2 closes shortly, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

- Tim

[Nils Ruinet]

Yes, my guess would be around $9000 for an executed Red One, maybe even less a few months later when the Scarlet S35 starts shipping and every elligible Red One has been upgraded to MX.
I'm afraid a lot of people will chose stage 2 to get their Epic earlier, but will then try to sell their executed Red One to cover some of the aditionnal costs or to buy a Scarlet instead.
So I really wouldn't be surprised if we saw a huge wave of executed Red Ones for sale as soon as stage 2 Epics start shipping.

But the good thing is, $9000 is the difference between stage 2 and stage 3 (even less since you get a 5' LCD instead of a 2.8' LCD), so even if it sells a bit cheaper than that, it should be easy (at least) not to lose money on this.

[KETCH ROSSi]

I agree with most of you, even so I think that there are too many variables, and the R1 is a them great Camera, and it will be for long to come, especially when you have upgraded to the MX sensor, truly an incredible upgrade in it self and very well capable to shoot side to side with an Epic!

So I do believe that the value of the R1 will be higher, however I tend to disagree with those trying to get high Premiums, for a camera that is simply put on the way out!

Replaced both by Epic and Scarlet, with the same exact sensor, even so obviously different Red Codes and Frame rates,a s well as form factor.

Also as I already said in an other thread, this time around RED has their S%$#@% together and have learned quite a bit form their first R1 experience, and for this we will see a very different approach to how this cameras will come to market and the quantity in which they will enter the market, so I firmly believe the wait to be much shorter and those paying such Hi premiums to cut the line, will be very sorry they did so!!

Red has already announced a partnership with their long partner in Tokyo to be their first reseller, and others are sure to follow, in order to allow a firm customer service and sale of the Astonishing number of cameras that will enter the market, in demand of the general public.

Furthermore with the incredible success of the R1 in main stream Hollywood and other venues, the Epic is a look after Camera by many Pro's and will be sure to see a higher sale then the R1's and RED knows it and is surely preparing for it.

So careful what people pay for used R1's executed or with Epic upgrade path open.

[Peter Hodgins]

it seems like a "dead-end" Red One is worth $9000. so for $14000 .... $9000 plus another lens, I can have a dynamite 3D rig!

[Nils Ruinet]

so for $14000 .... $9000 plus another lens, I can have a dynamite 3D rig!
or... you could just buy 2 small Scarlets for a similar price, and have an awesome 3D Rig in a much smaller form factor (think crane, steadicam, etc...), with all the other improvements that the new cameras have to offer. :001_cool:

[CJ Roy]

Yeah, interesting phenomenon as a result of the generosity of Red. Apparently, some folks are offering up their cameras at prices in the $9k range in order to get their Epic sooner (Stage 2 instead of Stage 3). The window on Stage 2 closes shortly, so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

- Tim

Right now some people are selling their MX'd R1's for 30K+

That'll surely drop off when there's less need, but right now anyone selling them for 9k is getting screwed.

[Rick Darge]

Red M's won't lose big value until after Stage 2 ships. Red MX's won't lost big value until after Scarlet ships.

Red MX will keep the Red One viable for another 2 years IMHO. Upgrade your cameras when you get the call. Even if you plan on going Epic.

[MastaMarek]

What I don't think people yet realize is that the RED ONE even with the Mysterium Sensor will still be good enough 20 years from now to shoot a feature film on. Nothing (besides a film camera) made in the last 20 years has ever had that same future potential.

Think about it.

-michael zaletel
that is assuming the current world stops any sort of technical development. in 20 years we ll have iPhones that can shoot 89K so the RED one will not be the desired tool to shoot anything on. Also the TV standard by that time should be about 999999p with 50GB/s of bandwidth.

[Zakaree Sandberg]

glass is a better investment

[Carlbattreall]

If someone wants to sell me their RED One for $9,000 I'll take it:thumbup:

[Cüneyt Kaya]

If someone wants to sell me their RED One for $9,000 I'll take it:thumbup:

really?

[Chris Luker]

really?

I think I'd take one for $9,000ish too instead of waiting for Scarlet...

[Anson Fogel]

Are we talking body only, w/stock PL mount and CF module? Or including enough accessories to get it to make pictures....big different. I tell people a RED ONE costs about 30,000 bucks, for a low end well equipped unit that works, has extra bats, storage, etc

As a stage 2 reservee, I plan to sell my R1 Mx-d (if I get a chance before S2) as a complete working package w/accessories, obviously those that are not very useful on EPIC. We also have a legal birger / impero on there, which gets sold.

(yeah, yeah, I know - I should not sell it, but we have good reasons)

So when quoting values, I think what is included is more than a semantic question. We'll include EVF, ET mounts and other ET accessories, extra batteries, cards - and without all that, the body itself is, well, not very handy.

[KETCH ROSSi]

Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.

However as stated before, I believe that the R1 value, even so definitely not as high as some think, but surely more then then 9K, but only for the low numbers which can be upgraded to the MX, if the R1 Serial No. is high and the time of the MX upgrade is long, there is no real value, and surely absolutely no worth paying a premium.

R1's will always be great cameras, especially with the MX in it, but once Epic is out followed by Scarlet, then the R1 will be left behind, far behind!

[Michael Hastings]

I think I'd take one for $9,000ish too instead of waiting for Scarlet...

How about one with a legal birger Canon EF electronic mount and Impero. Any takers at say $12,500?

Accessories extra but negotiable-prices approx. going rate for used accs.

[MichaelHalsell]

When Red makes the official announcement that EPIC is shipping, imagine the tizzy/panic/fear/elation that will sweep thru!

[KETCH ROSSi]

All I can really say is that R1 is a hell of a camera, but Epic and for many, very, very many, Scarlet, will be the absolute ultimate Image capture machine!!

Panic, yes by many for sure, but still no one in my mind will loose a single Dollar when selling their R1's ad when discounts and give away accessories when upgrading to Epic considered, no one looses anything.

Now for those that will not upgrade to Epic, but go strait to Scarlet, and need to sale their R1's, well they should do so quickly, as for them is all an other story!!

[Jack Cooper]

Right now some people are selling their MX'd R1's for 30K+

That'll surely drop off when there's less need, but right now anyone selling them for 9k is getting screwed.

CJ...

If your speaking of "body only" MX R1's sales...my personal experience is quite different than yours (significantly lower).

On fully "loaded" packages (with a variety of lenses and/or rig configs)...I too am aware of transactions in that range.

Certainly this discussion thread will be worth of a Harvard Business School case study on real option pricing in the very near future...

It is difficult to keep track on an "apples to apples" comparative basis.

[Jack Cooper]

Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.



Ketch...We have been noticing accessories are commanding about 50% of retail "new" price levels. Purely anecdotal -- for about a dozen recent transactions.

[KETCH ROSSi]

CJ...

If your speaking of "body only" MX R1's sales...my personal experience is quite different than yours (significantly lower).

On fully "loaded" packages (with a variety of lenses and/or rig configs)...I too am aware of transactions in that range.

Certainly this discussion thread will be worth of a Harvard Business School case study on real option pricing in the very near future...

It is difficult to keep track on an "apples to apples" comparative basis.


Agree with you here, as there has not been such transaction that I'm aware of for just the R1 body, MX or not, unless some one is really desperate to get an MXed R1 NOW, and has a Epic path, being the R1 an extremely low number, Below 100, and this individual paying might yet believe in the OLD RED, way of approaching Delivery schedule and processing capacity in Shipping, I reassure you that in my honest and analyzed opinion for what RED was and RED is, things have changed dramatically, and some one will find having paid a stiff premium just to get their Epic one week or two earlier then the rest of the Stage 2 Reduser, no matter of when they did tucked delivery of their R1's. (Before October 30 off course.

[KETCH ROSSi]

Ketch...We have been noticing accessories are commanding about 50% of retail "new" price levels. Purely anecdotal -- for about a dozen recent transactions.

Correct Jack, EVF and few others aside.

[Andrew Thomas]

If anybody was seriously interested in selling their R1-M (body only) for $9000...I would be pretty tempted. I don't expect non R1 owners to have access to the second gen Red cams for at least 12 months so I think people are undervaluing the R1-M (and certainly R1-MX) for the next 12-18 months.

[Nils Ruinet]

If anybody was seriously interested in selling their R1-M (body only) for $9000...I would be pretty tempted. I don't expect non R1 owners to have access to the second gen Red cams for at least 12 months so I think people are undervaluing the R1-M (and certainly R1-MX) for the next 12-18 months.
Let's hope you're right !
I think it all really depends on how fast they'll be able to deliver Epics and Scarlets, and get the MX upgrades done.

People who don't own a Red One probably won't be able to buy an Epic until next year, I guess. I don't know about Scarlet, I don't think they announced if actual Red One owners would be given priority on Scarlets too, or if they would be immediately available to everyone.

[Harcharan Singh]

Hi,
I doubt there is any other product in this world that gives you the price and performance R1 has given.

There are so many people around the world who have invested their hard earned money into HDCAMS', Varicam etc and many of them have not been able to recover their investments(lot of them are available at peanut prices today at ebay)
As a post production rental equipment house I think the option RED has given all the R1 users is just out of this world.No company had the 'balls' to give such a option.

So why are we worried about the value of RED . I think it is VALUELESS.
In near future if value of Red falls to 0 then keep it a savonier to remind you that you were part of history that rocked the film camera market.

Harcharan

[Michael Hastings]

If anybody was seriously interested in selling their R1-M (body only) for $9000...I would be pretty tempted. I don't expect non R1 owners to have access to the second gen Red cams for at least 12 months so I think people are undervaluing the R1-M (and certainly R1-MX) for the next 12-18 months.

Andrew: I know people that are willing to sell R1 for $10,000 (i.e. sweeten the pot a little bit over pure breakeven) and might consider $9000.

[R. Gonzales]

Definition of "dead end": not eligible for trade-in (ie - Stage 2 has been exercised).

Stage 2: $19500 (get Epic-x, keep your R1)

Stage 3: $10500 (get Epic-x, trade-in your R1)

Not factoring in the difference in Epic-X accessories between the stages, and not factoring in any MX upgrading on the R1, it seems like a "dead-end" Red One is worth $9000.

Thoughts?

- Tim

Tim? Are you still trying to buy a RED for 9K including accessories?

[conrad gaunt]

A R1 that gets the Monstro sensor upgrade should be around until bacteria breaks it down.

Of course it'll have more skew than an epic fitted with a monstro, but skew hasn't been a huge issue for me so far, and anything with 13.5 stop of DR is a viable film alternative.

Of course the price will drop as Scarlets appear.

[Tim Morten]

Tim? Are you still trying to buy a RED for 9K including accessories?

Never was... I've been a Red owner for years. I actually started the thread because I've been considering selling my rig to be able to do Stage 2 instead of Stage 3 (and get my Epic sooner).

I corresponded with someone who was looking to save money by buying a "dead end" Red, and they claimed that multiple people had offered to sell their R1 body for $8500 to $9500, which was surprising to me. Having done the math, I guess I can understand that someone might make that decision, but I tend to believe that "market" value on a Red One, even without the Epic upgrade option, is higher than that.

I may test the waters and list my rig for sale, and see what kind of offers I get.

Cheers,
Tim

[Nathan Beaman]

Ive been looking at this option and many people have been willing to sell in the $8500-$9500 range but almost all (except maybe 2) with the caveat that ownership doesnt change until their epic arrives.

[Sanjin Jukic]

What I don't think people yet realize is that the RED ONE even with the Mysterium Sensor will still be good enough 20 years from now to shoot a feature film on. Nothing (besides a film camera) made in the last 20 years has ever had that same future potential.

Think about it.

-michael zaletel

Michael,

again totally agree with you.

R1MX is a great value for any R1 user future.

Can beat easy any of competition digital camera system in the next 5-10 years.

[Dustin Cross]

Scarlet is going to hurt the dead end Red market. I am guessing once S35 Scarlet is shipping a non-MX R1 i going to be worth about $5000. An MX R1 will be worth about $9000. If I have to buy a camera, why buy an old non-MX R1 with slow boot times and over heating and all the little things, when I could by a brand new S35 Scarlet with all those issues changed and it comes with an MX sensor? The only thing the R1 gives me is more frame rates.

Dusty

[Jaime Vallés]

If I have to buy a camera, why buy an old non-MX R1 with slow boot times and over heating and all the little things, when I could by a brand new S35 Scarlet with all those issues changed and it comes with an MX sensor?
Agreed.

The only thing the R1 gives me is more frame rates.
And those framerates are in cropped sensor mode, not in full 4K resolution. According to current specs, the S35 Scarlet will be able to acieve 72fps bursts in full 5K resolution.

[CJ Roy]

CJ...

If your speaking of "body only" MX R1's sales...my personal experience is quite different than yours (significantly lower).

On fully "loaded" packages (with a variety of lenses and/or rig configs)...I too am aware of transactions in that range.

Certainly this discussion thread will be worth of a Harvard Business School case study on real option pricing in the very near future...

It is difficult to keep track on an "apples to apples" comparative basis.

some accessories, no glass. Base package, mx sensor.

[KETCH ROSSi]

Never was... I've been a Red owner for years. I actually started the thread because I've been considering selling my rig to be able to do Stage 2 instead of Stage 3 (and get my Epic sooner).

I corresponded with someone who was looking to save money by buying a "dead end" Red, and they claimed that multiple people had offered to sell their R1 body for $8500 to $9500, which was surprising to me. Having done the math, I guess I can understand that someone might make that decision, but I tend to believe that "market" value on a Red One, even without the Epic upgrade option, is higher than that.

I may test the waters and list my rig for sale, and see what kind of offers I get.

Cheers,
Tim



Yes I can also confirm on this, that several R1 owners have offered their R1's some of which really low number, for close to 9k some a bit higher, in the 12 to 14k so that they could also do the Stage 2 instead of stage 3, so they were willing to sale their R1's for few K below what RED would credit them for with Stage 3 just so that they could get their Epic-X sooner.

But we have decided to actually get two R1's with the upgrade path as well, so that we will then have two S3D rigs, when including my two Epic-X already reserved.

Many offers of R1's with the Epic path available are coming from those that wish to actually go to Scarlet, today alone I got seven offers, he he, I guess Jim's post of a "BIG Scarlet announcement in mid MAY, must have put them to the move hoping that there could also be a Reservation starting for the Scarlet.

[Tom Lowe]

How about one with a legal birger Canon EF electronic mount and Impero. Any takers at say $12,500?



Question: does it make any difference whatsoever if I have an MX right now and put a Birger on it? I understand that there is a 90-day warranty on the sensor upgrade itself. But aside from that, is there anything stopping me from putting a Birger on my camera if we plan to go Stage 2 and sell the MX immediately?

BTW, I believe that everyone who currently has a Red One should MX it before selling it. Red M aint gonna be of much use for much longer, IMO.

[Eirik Tyrihjel]

Question: does it make any difference whatsoever if I have an MX right now and put a Birger on it? I understand that there is a 90-day warranty on the sensor upgrade itself. But aside from that, is there anything stopping me from putting a Birger on my camera if we plan to go Stage 2 and sell the MX immediately?

I assume you are thinking about the warranty/upgrade issues with the Birger mount, and I am pretty sure RED will not ask us to send in our cameras for inspection before going stage 2 or 3. (That will be very costly and ineffecient)


BTW, I believe that everyone who currently has a Red One should MX it before selling it. Red M aint gonna be of much use for much longer, IMO.

The MX upgrade is 4500$ + one way shipping (provided you get the Epic), I think it would make sense, but if you put a price on the hassle - the time it takes + handling + any delay and it might not add up.

BUT: If you will keep your R1mx like I will, and you use it, it´s a no brainer.

My MX´ed #476, will be in my service for the next 6-10 years. It will be rented, act as B-camera, as primary camera if our Epic is out and as an additional camera on our live gigs. If I calculate even the most modest budget per year for it, it will bring in a LOT more than I will get if I sell it, so for me it´s a no-brainer.

We will get the Epic stage 2, but even the Scarlet can´t threaten my budgets as we work directly for our own costumers, and they get MX quality!

As far as 3D work goes, I personally believe it will continue to be very limited in usage for a long long time, exciting as it is.

[Scott Crawley]

I guess I can understand that someone might make that decision, but I tend to believe that "market" value on a Red One, even without the Epic upgrade option, is higher than that.

You seem to be overlooking supply and demand; If enough of your peers are willing to sell at $9000 to fill the demand, then your math means nothing.

With superior competition on the horizon, I wouldn't personally expect the demand for an executed R1 to be greater than the supply. There are over 7000 potential competitors for your buyer, right? That is just my instinct. Good luck.

[Tom Lowe]

I assume you are thinking about the warranty/upgrade issues with the Birger mount, and I am pretty sure RED will not ask us to send in our cameras for inspection before going stage 2 or 3. (That will be very costly and ineffecient)

Why would it even matter, though? We will own the MX camera outright, and it will have no trade-in or mark-off value of any kind. After the 90-day sensor warranty, does Red even care? Is it a matter that they might not service it if it's had a Birger on it?

[Graeme Hay]

I don't know a lot about the used pricing on the RED One, but from my perspective (as a starting independent filmmaker) I can see going for a brand-new scarlet over a used Red One.

There are choices and specs one needs to make their personal decision, but the fixed lens scarlet comes with everything you need to shot, where as a used RED One needs a lot of expensive accessories to make it work. Once you add up the cost even a used Red One at $10K will likely cost you in reality $15-20K for everything. Where as a Scarlet will be around $5-7k all in (you could add addition things to both).

3K vs 4K for 3-4 times the price?

Yeah I think the choice is clear on that one for us Indies with limited budget... just look at what the HDSLR are doing right now; its what I'm using and I know other local producers/directors are looking into.

[Aaron Newsome]

I'd be willing to pay $9,000 for an R1 body. Problem is, by the time anyone would actually sell their body for $9k, I won't be interested anymore.

[Scott Crawley]

Why would anyone pay more than $4500 for an executed R1MX? At that price the R1MX is competitive with the Scarlet, and the seller still breaks even. At $9000 you have the opportunity to enjoy your R1 for a few years and make a $4500 profit. That is very fortunate when you consider what a Viper is apparently worth now.

Mr. Jannard has taken good care of you all, and that is why I'll buy my first Red with confidence, and I'll most likely buy new.

[Jeff Coatney]

The Red One still makes beautiful 4K images. The Scarlet, will be a fantastic camera when it comes out, but it's still just 3K by comparison. Anyone looking to get a 4K 35mm camera system that can out-perform most of the cameras in the market, especially when it's MX'd-- might be able to cut a great deal in the next few days. The value Red places on the camera is a very different metric than someone who wants to own a state of the art 4K 35mm camera that has a sensor that matches most of the capabilities of the yet to be released Epic.

[Scott Crawley]

The Red One still makes beautiful 4K images. The Scarlet, will be a fantastic camera when it comes out, but it's still just 3K by comparison.

Are you not considering the S35 Scarlet, or have the specs on that changed? An upgraded R1 will still be a fine and useful machine, but unless my memory is faulty or specs change the only advantage over Scarlet S35 will be overcranking. It will be interesting to see how much of a premium that feature commands.

[Andrew Thomas]

After talking to a lot of people, there are quite a few people out there looking to get rid of the R1-M for ~9k.

[Peter Karlsson]

I would sell my R1-M for 9K... I don't see any reason why I wouldn't? I was planning to plunge into Stage-3, but in the end, for the same amount of money I would get my Epic sooner with Stage-2. I would even sell my LCD etc. very cheap since I get a bigger LCD with Epic stage-2 than stage-3.

[Shawn R]

It sounds like there is a lot of speculation on the cost vs. saleable value of the Red 1 M. What about the Red 1 MX a year from now? I was thinking on going Stage 2 and keeping my Red Ass.. If I don't fall in love with my Epic I could sell her and pick up a Red 1 MX for ~$15,000 next May.

Honestly my head is spinning a bit with all the numbers and I still have to do my taxes by May 1st, lol.

I got Red 2170 August 2008 so I have no idea where that will put me in line to receive Stage 3 Epic.
With my serial number do you think there will be much of a wait difference between Stage 2 and 3. A couple months I can live with, I don't have any big projects on the books right now.

[Tim Morten]

You seem to be overlooking supply and demand; If enough of your peers are willing to sell at $9000 to fill the demand, then your math means nothing.

With superior competition on the horizon, I wouldn't personally expect the demand for an executed R1 to be greater than the supply. There are over 7000 potential competitors for your buyer, right? That is just my instinct. Good luck.

FWIW, it seems that many R1's are changing hands for substantially > $9k. Those 7000 potential competitors turn out to be more like a handful of people who are actually willing to let go of their R1's right away. At any rate, I closed my deal, and I think that both myself and the buyer were happy, so it worked out. My Epic order has been placed. :)

Cheers,
Tim

[Scott Crawley]

FWIW, it seems that many R1's are changing hands for substantially > $9k. Those 7000 potential competitors turn out to be more like a handful of people who are actually willing to let go of their R1's right away. At any rate, I closed my deal, and I think that both myself and the buyer were happy, so it worked out. My Epic order has been placed. :)

Cheers,
Tim

Congrats! Enjoy your new tool when it arrives. It sounds like you did well to sell early.

What is the SN cutoff for Stage 2 anyway?

[Andrew Thomas]

Congrats! Enjoy your new tool when it arrives. It sounds like you did well to sell early.

Actually, I think a major reason for depressed prices right now are the R1 owners who don't have the funds for stage 2, but don't want to wait till stage 3 to move up. I think a lot of people willing to let their R1 go for $9k will not be willing to do that after the reservation cut-off.

[Michael Hastings]

It sounds like there is a lot of speculation on the cost vs. saleable value of the Red 1 M. What about the Red 1 MX a year from now? I was thinking on going Stage 2 and keeping my Red Ass.. If I don't fall in love with my Epic I could sell her and pick up a Red 1 MX for ~$15,000 next May.

Honestly my head is spinning a bit with all the numbers and I still have to do my taxes by May 1st, lol.

I got Red 2170 August 2008 so I have no idea where that will put me in line to receive Stage 3 Epic.
With my serial number do you think there will be much of a wait difference between Stage 2 and 3. A couple months I can live with, I don't have any big projects on the books right now.

Why would an mx r1 be worth anywhere near $15k when presumably the $7k S35 scarlet will be out with mx (5K?) sensor, similar or better specs and a much nicer package/form factor? Seems like substantially less than $7k will be more likely.

[Antonio Forjaz]

stage 2 and keeping R1, and having it Mx'ed is the way to go for me, then I will have 2 great cameras for all my shoots, EPIC can be A, R1Mx can be B, and off we go making movies....then a Scarlet for the tight stuff...like in side cars...small spaces...and when necessary rent one and still have one for shooting when I want and need...also I am the only RED owner in Mozambique, so no rental competition yet...lucky me...

[Mark Pedersen]

Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.

However as stated before, I believe that the R1 value, even so definitely not as high as some think, but surely more then then 9K, but only for the low numbers which can be upgraded to the MX, if the R1 Serial No. is high and the time of the MX upgrade is long, there is no real value, and surely absolutely no worth paying a premium.

R1's will always be great cameras, especially with the MX in it, but once Epic is out followed by Scarlet, then the R1 will be left behind, far behind!

Hey Ketch,

What would you consider to be a "high" number? I'm at serial #1545 and was planning to go stage 3 since my camera isn't working enough right now. Plus I have no idea where RED is in the MX upgrade cue. If I'm close to being eligible to upgrade, maybe stage 2 makes more sense. But then I'm looking at having to come out pocket for the upgrade.. when there are MX cameras at rental houses in my market that still aren't working that much.

What to do... ;)

Sounds like you think Stage 3 is the way to go...

M

[Chris Kenny]

Why would an mx r1 be worth anywhere near $15k when presumably the $7k S35 scarlet will be out with mx (5K?) sensor, similar or better specs and a much nicer package/form factor? Seems like substantially less than $7k will be more likely.

Some of it might depend on availability issues. If existing Red customers get some sort of order priority on Scarlets (I seem to recall this being mentioned) and/or there's quickly a 6 month waiting list, the market for R1 cameras could hold up reasonably well.

One thing to consider with respect to the R1-MX upgrade: if you were planning to buy a RedRocket, the bundle deal lowers the effective price of the sensor upgrade to $4000. And if you're also executing on a Stage 2 Epic upgrade, you get a $1250 credit toward the Epic as well, lowering the effective price to just $2750. At that point it's practically a no-brainer.

[Scott Crawley]

Accessories have a different resale value all together, and the 9k is referred to the R1 body only, off course, as this is the actual difference in dollar value after the upgrade, and with it the seller will have lost nothing.




One thing to consider with respect to the R1-MX upgrade: if you were planning to buy a RedRocket, the bundle deal lowers the effective price of the sensor upgrade to $4000. And if you're also executing on a Stage 2 Epic upgrade, you get a $1250 credit toward the Epic as well, lowering the effective price to just $2750. At that point it's practically a no-brainer.

There is the point. You could sell that R1 for $3,000 and still
make money because Jim will have subsidized the sale. There is no need to panic, and no reason to complain about the falling value... As long as you upgrade.

That's a lower number than even I thought.

[KETCH ROSSi]

Hey Ketch,

What would you consider to be a "high" number? I'm at serial #1545 and was planning to go stage 3 since my camera isn't working enough right now. Plus I have no idea where RED is in the MX upgrade cue. If I'm close to being eligible to upgrade, maybe stage 2 makes more sense. But then I'm looking at having to come out pocket for the upgrade.. when there are MX cameras at rental houses in my market that still aren't working that much.

What to do... ;)

Sounds like you think Stage 3 is the way to go...

M

Hey Mark,

high number has different meaning for MX vs. Epic-X, as I said many times in various threads, I trust and have confidence in the RED of today, to be a very different company form the RED of initial R1 shipping, so a HIgh serial for an Epic-X stage two means very little, as IMO the numbers of cameras that will ship out will be in far higher numbers then the R1's were.

Now when talking about high number for MX, well thing is MX is hot, but as more and more R1's, every one I know is upgrading, and every should, the market gets saturated again with cameras refreshed in higher demand then ever, and it will be so till lEpic-X ships, then will mellow, but not much, as Epic-X will still be a new camera, however considering that RED is swamped doing MX upgrades it is tanking a bit long to get cameras in line for the upgrade, loosing the value of higher R1's, but yours is in a relatively low serial, again remember that what it matters most is delivery date.


Any way, no I did not say stage 3 is best, the opposite!! Stage 2 is the only way to go!

[Michael Hastings]

There is the point. You could sell that R1 for $3,000 and still
make money because Jim will have subsidized the sale. There is no need to panic, and no reason to complain about the falling value... As long as you upgrade.

That's a lower number than even I thought.

and that's been my point - as far as prices it doesn't matter that someone paid $1300 for a Canon HV30 single chip camcorder 3 years ago, it only matters that it did 1440x1080 HD (on tape because SD cards were too slow and/or cost $100 per gig) and now you can buy a 1920x1080P Canon HF200 - at a better compression ratio that records on SD for $430 (just did it) and 3 plus hours of recording on a $110 32gig SD card. So I would sell an HV30 for less than $300 and feel good about it.

The Moore's law effect of Scarlet and vDSLRs will dictate a very low used price (I believe in the $4K to $5500 range) within 15 months which is great for indie producers, people that want 4K for underwater (where the weight of an R1 doesn't matter much) with reduced financial risk, etc. and if RED can hold the $28K price for an Epic for awhile (which I believe they can) the original R1 owners really won't feel bad about sub-$5K R1s.

I believe Jim's stage 2 non-tradein upgrade program has created an excellent win-win situation for our entire industry, because it puts cinema grade cameras in the hands of several thousand additional users that otherwise couldn't afford it and is that much bigger of an installed base for 4K .r3d based post solutions which will help drive continued development.