Dollar at all time low (against Euro and NOK)

[Eirik Tyrihjel]

well, not all time low, but the lowest in the past (almost) two decades,

It´s certanly a lot lower than I budgeted for when I first ordered my RED a little over a year ago, and despite analysts saying it´s going lower in the future, I am well below my original estimate and today I thought it might be a good idea to secure it, so I bought a lot of dollars... (in a bankaccount - not cash obviously)

The dollar might continue to go down, but I wished to secure it at a level where it´s more benefitial to me than I thought it would be...

Just want to share my thoughts, especially for those of you that don´t like risk.

[Sanjin Jukic]

The end of the American dream?

LINK >> (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5303590.stm)

Fed cuts interest rate to 4.75%

LINK >> (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6999821.stm)

Stocks Soar After Half-Point Rate Cut

LINK >> (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/wall_street.html?.v=28)

Hope to get RED as the cheapest as it possible around Christmas.

[Dexter Gregoire]

The Canadian dollar is on FIRE! Not since 30 years has it been so high against the US Dollar. I'm loving it and timing it because analysts say it's going even higher.

[Gabriel Beaudry]

The Canadian dollar is on FIRE! Not since 30 years has it been so high against the US Dollar. I'm loving it and timing it because analysts say it's going even higher.

I'm right there with you. As long as it stays that way till the end of the year, I'll be happy.

[Finner]

I'm a canuck as well and have heard it is expected for our buck to be worth more then the US dollar by December. The timing could'nt be better for us right now.

[Kevin Halverson]

Great for you guys on 'the other side of the pond' but sucks for us. I am leaving for London tomorrow, picked up some Sterling today. Wow, horrible exchange rate. I have been going there for the last 20+ years and its never been this bad.

[Jeff Kilgroe]

A temporary situation... We've seen it before. Inflation in the US is beginning to spiral out of control. This latest interest rate cut is probably a last hoorah! as far as low interest rates go as this only adds to the problem. Not to mention the current problem we have in the US with people spending "stupid money". ...People don't care if they can afford it, it's an issue of "how much does it cost per month?". Too many people buying things they can't afford, house foreclosures are at an all time high...

Anyway, interest rates will eventually begin to rise, especially as we see other global factors start to influence such a shift -- the falling value of the dollar vs. other currencies, inflation is beginning to speed up in China as their demand for industrial workers tapers off.

We have a truly global economy these days and who knows what the future will bring. But it's almost certain that double digit interest rates are in the future for us Americans and inflation will slow down, the dollar will rise.... And the cycle will continue in similar fashion and so on.

[M Most]

I'm a canuck as well and have heard it is expected for our buck to be worth more then the US dollar by December. The timing could'nt be better for us right now.

I'm curious as to why you guys would be cheering this when it likely means even less US production going to Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, among other places.

[Michael Hastings]

A temporary situation... But it's almost certain that double digit interest rates are in the future for us Americans and inflation will slow down, the dollar will rise.... And the cycle will continue in similar fashion and so on.

It may or may not be temporary.

Part of your analysis is correct that the double digit interest rates are in our future, but the rest is suspect. The culprit is the money supply - the underlying cause of inflation is increasing the money supply without an increase in real output - i.e. all of us working harder or smarter. Pumping more money as the fed has been doing, and just increased, eases the liquidity/credit crunch in the short term but devalues the money in the long term (even for us) hence inflation. The current fly in the ointment is the trillion dollars or so we are spending in Iraq which isn't being paid for by taxes or increased real output. So even though we haven't been increasing the money supply enough YET to offset that debt everyone in the world knows we will have to in order to reduce the cost to the government of the
fixed interest Treasury bills sold to cover it. That causes the inflation which is a backhanded tax on everyone who holds or uses dollars, but mostly those in the US, will pay the bill. Again, everyone in the world knows we will have to inflate so they are only willing to buy dollars at increasingly lower rates.

BTW Those in the US that have real property or stocks in companies with substantial real property and goods have somewhat of a hedge. The ones that get brutalized are the wage earners/renters - unless their wages keep pace with the inflation - usually not the case.

[Antoine Baumann]

Eirik, I have been thinking to that for a long time, and each time I thought "yeah, $ is low let's buy it", I have waited and it has droped even more. But you are right not to take too much risk, because if I remember well, last year the $ went down till something like november then went up and in Spring 2007 in went down again. Anyway my point is that $ is not stable and will get higher than it is now. So if you are happy with today $ value, then yes I think it is good idea to buy.

antoine.

[donatello b]

the other factor to keep a eye on is those country's that are holding huge amounts of US $$ ( because of trade imbalance) & debt ... china, japan & all oil country's ... many of these country's are proping up ( buying $$ on open market) the US $ to some extent as it is in their current best interest ...

[Finner]

I'm curious as to why you guys would be cheering this when it likely means even less US production going to Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, among other places.

I no longer do big budget long format work so our high dollar does not effect me other then being able to purchase the camera cheaper.

[Nathan Buxton]

mmost that is exactly what i was going to say. just look at the vancouver market right now and you'll see why the dollar aint such a great thing.

on the other side of the coin, maybe now is the time that the TRUE canadian film market emerges.

[Joe Carney]

I'm curious as to why you guys would be cheering this when it likely means even less US production going to Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, among other places.

Because American Unions have become their own worst enemy and scare directors and producers out of the country.
It's not the USA you're competing with, it's Eastern Europe we are both competing with. After I read what happened to the director of SAW, not sure I blame them either.

[Curran Giddens]

Great for you guys on 'the other side of the pond' but sucks for us. I am leaving for London tomorrow, picked up some Sterling today. Wow, horrible exchange rate. I have been going there for the last 20+ years and its never been this bad.

I just made an order from Formatte in the UK. £140.00 for a single ND filter + £20.00 shipping cost me $318! That's almost double!

[kmikami]

After I read what happened to the director of SAW, not sure I blame them either.

What was that?

[M Most]

Because American Unions have become their own worst enemy and scare directors and producers out of the country.
It's not the USA you're competing with, it's Eastern Europe we are both competing with. After I read what happened to the director of SAW, not sure I blame them either.

If you're going to make such a statement (i.e., that it's unions that cause runaway production to foreign locales), you're going to have to back it up with an awful lot of evidence, because personally, I think that statement is naive at best and ridiculous at worst. As for Eastern Europe, if you actually look at production listings for the next 6 months or so, you'll find that the combined total of US originated productions headed for New Mexico, Louisiana, New York, and, yes, California dwarf the number going to foreign locales - and that would include Canada and at least 5 Eastern European countries combined.

The reports of the demise of the US production industry are just as exaggerated as those that report the death of film.

[Greg M]

yes, come on down to Louisiana.

[Jonathan L. Bowen]

I have my funds pretty diversified, so I'm not too worried, but I guess this is why my dad is turning his real estate into cold, hard cash, because if interest rates do increase in the future, which would make sense, he would have plenty of money to get into deals easier in the future. It should be interesting to see.

[Kevin Halverson]

I just made an order from Formatte in the UK. £140.00 for a single ND filter + £20.00 shipping cost me $318! That's almost double!

Yeah, 1 mile shuttle from Heathrow terminal to hotel. £4 each direction!

[Jeremy Torrie]

It's the producers who look for ways to get their films made (as opposed to not getting made at all), and if in the past there was a currency discrepancy, that was another mechanism to help get a film into production. The production incentives up here are based on ecomonic studies related to the ancillary benefits of each foreign dollar coming into a province, and how many times it circulates in the local economy. I believe the quoted number is between eleven and fourteen.

I do know in speaking with dozens -if not the low hundreds- of producers that the physical cost of making a film versus how much money they have to spend is the deciding factor. Again, if a network is going to only provide $750,000 per episode and it costs $1 Million to make, the producer is going to find that money wherever he/she can, and that has typically been in Vancouver or Toronto. And if you're Insight for example, you roll dozens of productions over with a non-union crew to help keep costs even lower.

So if a producer can bring some or all of his or her keys into town and get the project made cheaper but at a perceptibly similar quality, then what is wrong with that? At the end of the day it is a product destined for the world marketplace. Do people forget that these very same networks and studios turn around and sell the finished film or TV series to Canada for generally handsome profits? We contribute billions to the bottom line of the content owners each year when you add up theatrical, pay per view, pay TV, conventional cable, and DVD/home video. So they understand what a price point means.

Our dollar with have parity very shortly and that will likely work to the advantage of the American producers who will keep films in the US and take advantage of agreements such as SAG Indie. Even though I reside in Manitoba, we too are looking beyond our borders to figure out how we'll get our projects made, and yes we cannot ignore the physical costs of producing a film in eastern Europe. But do people here get mad at me for trying to get a project produced? Not at all.

A huge, huge problem in Canada is the tax laws for private investors...there really is no incentive for private investment, nor is there any incentive from a tax perspective to defer fees or provide camera and/or post facilities (it grinds down the tax credit), and if you sincerely care about your project and want it to be the best it can be, you must wade into the deep end of the pool and find someone to swim with. That means searching for presales in other territories, as well as private investment.

[donatello b]

most of the production that i knew that went to vancouver, canada hired union crew ( back then grip was 14hr canadian$ and 18hr US $-then factor in that the US $ was worth almost 1.50 canadian so a Canadian union crew was much less..now add on the tax breaks etc .. but looks like the canadion $ is getting up there with the US $ ) ...

i think some productions do go to right to work states to avoid the unions - and if you look at the crews they have a mix crew of union and non union ....
Louisiana has been doing very well for production - they offer very good tax incentives , easy permit all on top of the IRS tax benefit ( good in all states) on productions capped at 15mil ( or is it 17?) ....

[Greg M]

Louisiana is now #3 in the US (behind California and NY)...but we have always had a strong crew base and decent infrastructure. Our current rebates for budgets over $300k are the best available in the US.

[M Most]

i think some productions do go to right to work states to avoid the unions - and if you look at the crews they have a mix crew of union and non union ....
Louisiana has been doing very well for production - they offer very good tax incentives , easy permit all on top of the IRS tax benefit ( good in all states) on productions capped at 15mil ( or is it 17?) ....

Nearly every production in Louisiana, New Mexico, and New York carries a union crew. And essentially every one is a DGA, WGA, and SAG signatory, as well as IATSE. Even in Florida - a "right to work" state - essentially all "serious" productions are union signatory.

[Finner]

..."serious" productions...

Because if its not union they can't be serious?????????????????????????????

[Jeremy Hughes]

90% of Canadian trades are done with the United States. The CAD's going to fall with the USD sooner or later. :sad:

If the CAD and USD are nearly at par... why is the Canon HV20 $1300 in Canada and $900 in the United States? He he... I know what country I'm doing my Christmas shopping in! :) (or from [internet])

[Curran Giddens]

Haven't you guys heard?

Massachussetts is now has the best film tax credit incentives in the US.

Any production (over $50k) with 50% of payroll spent in MA, can get 25% tax-credit. There is no cap.

[Greg M]

Haven't you guys heard?

Massachussetts is now has the best film tax credit incentives in the US.

Any production (over $50k) with 50% of payroll spent in MA, can get 25% tax-credit. There is no cap.

Louisiana offers 25% of all Louisiana expenses and 40% for all Louisiana labor. Your chart is not accurate.

[M Most]

Because if its not union they can't be serious?????????????????????????????

You're putting words into my mouth. By "serious" I mean not a no-budget, do it yourself, hobbyist kind of thing. I mean an actual funded production with a crew and professional actors - which essentially describes just about anything that would be generated by a Los Angeles based production company or studio, which is what I thought this topic was referring to.

[Joe Carney]

You're putting words into my mouth. By "serious" I mean not a no-budget, do it yourself, hobbyist kind of thing. I mean an actual funded production with a crew and professional actors - which essentially describes just about anything that would be generated by a Los Angeles based production company or studio, which is what I thought this topic was referring to.


btw..Every state is a right to work state.

I was specifically referring to an article in Movie Maker by the Director of "SAW". He was in South Carolina getting ready to shoot when union reps showed up in the middle of the night at his hotel threatening him and his crew. Saying the film would be blacklisted if they didn't convert to union card.
Thats why the second and third ones were shot overseas in the Czech republic. He may never get back his investment on the first one.

The unions have no vested interest in the movie actually making money as long as they get paid. That sort of thug behavour is what I'm talking about as being their own worst enemy.

I'm not anti union, but that is outrageous, and yes it has given me pause about my own future projects.

Of course for the time being, with the dollar being weak, we may see production move over here, hehehe.

[Nathan Buxton]

louisiana eh? i've never been is it a very diverse area? what makes it third to NY and LA? I mean NY and LA are obvious because LA can represent many cities, and NYC can certainly represent almost any city.. but louisiana?

[Greg M]

louisiana eh? i've never been is it a very diverse area? what makes it third to NY and LA? I mean NY and LA are obvious because LA can represent many cities, and NYC can certainly represent almost any city.. but louisiana?


just stating the facts...sorry if you dont like it. here are some of the reasons though:

1. Tax credits are the best currently offered
2. talented crew base
3. diverse locations
4. New Orleans
5. Talent
6. Louisiana has historically been a home to a diverse group of artists
7. top notch post facilities
8. great food
9. plenty of studio space

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Louisiana ranks third for film production in U.S. (AP) -- 03.09.2007

Louisiana ranks third for film production in U.S.



BATON ROUGE La.-----Louisiana's package of tax breaks for the film industry has pushed the state

into one of the top destinations in the United States for moviemaking, third

behind only California and New York, a study released Monday found.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



• Louisiana is one of the first states to adopt and implement industry incentives.

• Since Louisiana’s film incentives began in 2002, the state has realized a total of nearly $2.5 billion in film production.

• Louisiana has experienced the highest statewide film activity growth in the US -- ranked behind only California & New York in the amount of film production. (ERA study & P3)

• The motion picture industry in Louisiana supported only 5,437 jobs in 2003. By 2005, an additional 13,445 jobs were created. Louisiana has experienced an annual employment growth rate of 23% per year. (The highest film industry employment growth in the country. (ERA)

• Employment growth in Louisiana’s film industry has also led to exponential wage growth. Over the last few years the annual growth in wages has been greater than 31%. (ERA)

[kmikami]

I was specifically referring to an article in Movie Maker by the Director of "SAW". He was in South Carolina getting ready to shoot when union reps showed up in the middle of the night at his hotel threatening him and his crew. Saying the film would be blacklisted if they didn't convert to union card.

Well, everybody's point of view is different. This story makes you dislike unions while to me it just confirms my feeling that I never want to go to South Carolina. :tongue:


Thats why the second and third ones were shot overseas in the Czech republic. He may never get back his investment on the first one.

He'll never get his investment back on a $1 million movie that grossed $100 million!?!? And that is somehow the fault of unions? Not crooked corporate accounting?

[kmikami]

Oh, wait a minute. I think you're talking about Eli Roth, the director of Hostel, not Saw.

[Joe Carney]

You may be right, need to find the article again.
The unions reps weren't from SC. And so what if it grossed 100 mil worldwide, thats not that much anymore. He was forced to make that deal after the one with the studio was made, so it came out of his end.

btw..Do I detect an anti southern attitude? Hope not.

SC has instituted film incentives too. Charleston can easily pass as European because of it's architecture. Great food too.

I don't mind paying union rates, I do mind people trying to get me to hire more than I need. I also believe in letting people cross train to advance their careers.

I'm a fan of the "Small group of people with like minds" approach.

[kmikami]

It was Eli Roth and the movie in question was Cabin Fever. Plus it was North Carolina, not South, so you can't accuse me of being anti-South :wink:

$100 million is a huge deal for a $1 million movie! Cabin Fever, the actual movie in question didn't make nearly as much though so I can see how he might have lost some money.

[Joe Carney]

I was being sarcastic about the south.
Now I can't find the article. I'll have to dig a little more.
I guess I'm losing my mind.
You're right about Eli Roth though, he did move from usa to czech republic.
Now I can't even find the info on Eli Roth from movie maker. geez I'm losing it. Have to lay off the Scotch for awhile I guess.