Okay, now I'm excited...

[Michael "Dorkman" Scott]

With all this talk of comparing RED RAY to BluRay, I honestly didn't get it. At this point, you wouldn't find many movies that had been mastered above 2K, which is barely more than 1080p. Even assuming we get 4K television in the next five years...well, my question will remain "why". Most HDTV still looks crap because they don't have the bandwidth for it.

But after talking with Mike and the guys at fxphd, I realized that the exciting part about RED RAY isn't the home video possibilities. It's the idea that I can take my little RED RAY playback device and encoded media, plug it into a movie theatre's digital projector (and within a few years now, all of them will have one), and play the movie at the highest resolution that the projector can achieve. No more striking prints, no more playing off a laptop and being limited by the video card.

And that's just the start. The resistance to digital projection in the last decade or so has been due in part to how much money it would cost to do so -- in the billions to replace the old film projectors with the new and expensive digital ones. They're finally getting around to spending that money, mainly because of the push towards digital stereoscopic.

But with RED RAY coming in at under $1000, that means for the 3500 or so screens in the U.S., it would cost merely $3.5 million to hook up a RED RAY device to every single one. ($7 million on the outside, if we assume that every theatre is set up for 3D.) No more striking and shipping heavy and expensive prints. If you can burn a DVD (and what indie filmmaker can't), you can burn a RED RAY 4K "print".

I can even see the studios embracing this for the same reason. They'd save millions on every film just by burning a RED RAY disc instead of making a print. (Although you'd probably have to make some kind of encrypted "RED RAY PRO" device, so that the disc will only play back with a properly-encoded CF card acting as a dongle or something, that dongle code being specific to that run of discs. You don't want the big studio RED RAY discs being playable if intercepted.)

I still think physical media at all is just a stop-gap until movies are downloaded/streamed directly to the theatre via satellite, but even given that, RED RAY is an amazing concept that, like the cameras, will totally change the industry, especially in terms of putting the big toys in the hands of the little guy.

I get it now, and I want one.

[10s]

The codec inside is the really interesting piece to me. If they can cram all the 4k material into a dual layer DVD-9, I'd bet the codec might be able to make 4k streaming for VOD with current bandwidth constraints a reality. That would change many things and make RED big $. How many customers across the planet would want this?

[Jean Déraps]

If I'm not mistaken, the current hurdle in having 4K digital projection is not the distribution media (huge hard drives are currently very cheap) but rather the problem of who will be paying for the projector...distributors have lots of $ to gain by eliminating the prints, but not your local cinema/theatre. This is why I'm wondering what happened to the 4K "projector" it was rumoured RED was working on. Because should RED come out with a blow-me-away 4K projector at an interesting price point, this might be the thing that would make digital cinema closer to being a widespread reality.

[Claus Mueller]

The new Red delivery codec is the really interesting thing to me as well. It must be at least 5-10 times more efficient than h.264. If that codec can put 2 hours of 4k compressed footage on a 8.5 GB DVD, you can put 8 hours of 2k or roughly 20 hours of 720p on a DVD. This means streaming 2k at roughly 2.5 Mbits/s.

How about a Red streaming server?

[10s]

Yes Claus, let's look at RED product sales potential:

RED ONE: 5-15,000 tops?
SCARLET: 25-100,000?
EPIC: 300-1,500?

RED RAY: 500,000+?

RED RAY CODEC: 100,000,000+? just a few pennies per download charge for decades on end!

These are shooting from the hip guestimates, but I think the ratios are somewhat realistic.

[Zach Nelson]

If I'm not mistaken, the current hurdle in having 4K digital projection is not the distribution media (huge hard drives are currently very cheap) but rather the problem of who will be paying for the projector...distributors have lots of $ to gain by eliminating the prints, but not your local cinema/theatre. This is why I'm wondering what happened to the 4K "projector" it was rumoured RED was working on. Because should RED come out with a blow-me-away 4K projector at an interesting price point, this might be the thing that would make digital cinema closer to being a widespread reality.

Very true - if a stunning 4K projector existed for $9,999 imagine the paradigm shift - or a 2K projector for $6500 - huge!!!

Take the projector and add 1TB of storage and networking with the ability to subscribe and pull-down feeds from a server. Digital prints zapped across the internet (vpn'd) directly to a projector and then stored on an encrypted filesystem and nothing inbetween, no video processors, no HDMI output, nothing except light - safe for distributors and very piracy-proof.

[Ed Blythe]

The resistance to digital projection in the last decade or so has been due in part to how much money it would cost to do so -- in the billions to replace the old film projectors with the new and expensive digital ones.

...

I can even see the studios embracing this for the same reason. They'd save millions on every film just by burning a RED RAY disc instead of making a print.

I agree with all the above sentiments - RedRay was the big news at NAB. It was frustrating to see it get smothered by all those well (and ill?) meaning souls trying to cram their Nikon glass onto Scarlet...

But consider this - the MPAA set 4K as the standard for digital projection in response to a growing number of miniDV movies being shot independently in the early '90's (a trend of independence which many people have recalled when talking about Red). In a way this was good - it ensured that the quality of digital projection equaled/surpassed 35mm film.

But the other effect of that was to keep distribution channels firmly in the hands of those that could afford to use them - it was all well and good to go and shoot Pieces of April on MiniDV, but to put that in the theaters you had to be buddies with one of the 7 studios or one of the big distributors. These entities are no more interested in letting you compete with them now than they were in letting you compete with them then.

4K digital projection is great* - but so many years since the standard was announced, and technology still hasn't caught up. Why? Nobody could afford to raise the demand. Now - through 3D animation movies (and others) funded by the studios - that demand is starting to appear. And perhaps Red has the balls to open it up and we can all help with that.

But there is little to no incentive for the established acquisition/distribution companies to go the cheaper option ("burning a RED RAY disc") and in so doing permit all of us to compete with them. The RedRay battle will not be won with the invention (or the codec) - it will be won with the adoption. Same as VHS. Or BluRay, come to think of it... (and I can't see the BluRay Gang giving up their market share to 4K competitors so soon after they wrestled it away from HD DVD).

Not meaning to be a naysayer (in fact, I'm far from that if you read this in the spirit that it was intended) - just wanted to point out that there are a lot more variables in the game than the technical. And it tends to be the economic that trumps all.

BTW, I'm excited too!



*To untrained eyes, 2K and 4K look identical (and if you want to argue with that, take a look at the number of 2K DI's vs 4K DI's on big budget studio films). So why not a 2K standard for digital projection? Well, it just bought them about 5 years without competition (otherwise Red might have come out much earlier with a 2K image maker). They want that sort of control, and will continue to work to protect it.

[10s]

Good point Ed, but I think this is an adoption case of, "Build it and they will come." Yes, the Hollywood monopoly will & does fight tooth & nail to hang on to their territory but---- it's not theirs, it belongs to the audience. I say the codec is key to connecting producers to customers using already exsisting com lines for VOD distribution.

For film makers it will (and is) playing out like the internet: the best distributors will be those who can create the best buzz and attract the largest audience. That's how it already is in theatrical exhibition. Those artists that deliver resonating material will stick while others not well recieved fall to the wayside. Unfortunately for theatres, all those large flat screens are already taking their toll and will continue to do so. That's why there's the 3D advancement. Most theatre audiences are teenagers and those in their 20s looking for a social event, hence hollywood's desire for Superman, Spiderman, Speedracer,... type movies. There's a much larger audience waiting at home. RED RAY Codec = 4K streaming to your own theatre.

[number6]

After NAB, I came to the conclusion that RED Ray was the biggest thing to come out of the three releases by RED. Then I came to the conclusion after having a post answered by Stuart from RED that a license would allow (whomever) to burn a dual layered disc with 2 hours of 4K content, that the codec is the most important part.

But now I"m starting to think the most important part of the whole equation is Jim Jannard. Originally I thought he was probably a team player and would play along with all industries involved as a VIP member of their respective clubs.

I now believe he is the outlying data point on the graph that will attract other data points and skew the old familiar curve away from how things used to be done, into a complete new direction. He may just be maverick enough to not be intimidated by the prostablishment. If that's the case, JIM JANNARD is the most important person in our (content providers) universe right now.

Eventually he will probably be left behind and we will put up statues to him. But I don't think HE even knows where this will all lead.

I had a few minutes so I thought I would just Pontificate for a bit.

[10s]

number6, I agree----I have a hopeful feeling this is going to get really interesting!