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  1. #1141  
    Senior Member Blair S. Paulsen's Avatar
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    This thread has spent far too many pages going in circles - and reaching conclusions not in evidence - but there are some fundamental points that have real merit.

    1) The quality gap between motion imaging devices at various price points is shrinking fast. Video quality is a selling point in the relatively mature smartphone market and AI is getting better at overcoming the limitations of tiny optics - particularly with multiple lens designs. Any camera unable to clearly outperform an iPhone is unlikely to sell many units.

    2) For every true professional cameraperson who cares about IQ, gradability, etc there's dozens, perhaps hundreds, of people buying cameras who just need it to be good enough. At the higher end, everything matters. In the market segment Komodo's anticipated price puts it, buyers typically want to get as close to the top dogs as possible, as cheaply as possible.

    3) Many believe that the BMPCC6K has moved the cheese, somewhat like RED did to Sony a decade ago. Does this "new reality" make Komodo overpriced if, in fact, a ready to shoot rig is >$8K? Plenty of posts about that in this thread, despite the many unknowns at this juncture.

    Cheers - #19
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  2. #1142  
    Senior Member Bastien Tribalat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rakesh Malik View Post
    Took 'em long enough!



    Given the constellation of 8K post hardware that BMD demoed at NAB, I think it was a pretty clear statement that BMD has an 8K camera in the works. My guess is that when it can get the price point down to the ballpark of the Ursa Mini Pro's, then it will materialize. And fly off the shelves and into the hands of thousands of youtubers.
    Well sometimes there's a few good online shows on YouTube... Sometimes...
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  3. #1143  
    Senior Member Rakesh Malik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bastien Tribalat View Post
    Well sometimes there's a few good online shows on YouTube... Sometimes...
    I think of them like so:

    There are filmmakers who share their films on YouTube
    There are people who make crappy videos for youtube viewers, some of which in spite of their crappy production values have interesting content

    The latter are what I think of as youtubers, which makes them sound like some kind of digital root vegetable.
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  4. #1144  
    Senior Member Blair S. Paulsen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rakesh Malik View Post
    (snip) The latter are what I think of as youtubers, which makes them sound like some kind of digital root vegetable.
    It certainly sounds like a good term for the viewers... ;-)

    Cheers - #19
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  5. #1145  
    Senior Member DJ Meyer's Avatar
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    On an infinite timeline, sure, things will level off from a picture quality standpoint, but that is a looong way off.

    I'll be happy when i can get a medium format 64k (oversample for 16k displays and crop) that captures 25 stops in a 32 bit+ floating point raw format at 1000 fps, has a milimeter accurate per pixel depth information embedded in the footage, and runs on a slim battery for 6 hours. All for $5K
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  6. #1146  
    Senior Member mikeburton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Meyer View Post
    On an infinite timeline, sure, things will level off from a picture quality standpoint, but that is a looong way off.

    I'll be happy when i can get a medium format 64k (oversample for 16k displays and crop) that captures 25 stops in a 32 bit+ floating point raw format at 1000 fps, has a milimeter accurate per pixel depth information embedded in the footage, and runs on a slim battery for 6 hours. All for $5K
    Forget the camera and or the glass at that point. Just put on your hat and glasses that can project you into any photo real virtual environment with any actors you want and any script you feed it and hit record and you can capture the entire scene in one go from any imaginable angle with any direction you feed it, stunts, blocking etc. Then let the AI make intelligent edit decisions for you with minor direction you choose to manipulate story, change any performance after the fact or even any actor you want on the fly, pick / change / adjust your final color palette and sound design all intelligently processed for you and available to you via AI and send direct to any distribution platform you can attract. Best idea/taste wins, not best execution based on any limitations. That’s immersive and that will one day be the future.
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  7. #1147  
    Senior Member DJ Meyer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeburton View Post
    That’s immersive and that will one day be the future.
    Yeh but i'll be dead by then.
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  8. #1148  
    Senior Member mikeburton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DJ Meyer View Post
    Yeh but i'll be dead by then.
    Perhaps, but perhaps not ��
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  9. #1149  
    Quote Originally Posted by Christoffer Glans View Post
    My question, the one I'm entertaining here, is: How do you think the camera market will be, both high and low in two years time?
    Okay ...

    competition forces prices down and forces companies to innovate more to provide a "competitive advantage". Companies that find competitive advantages other than just lower their offering's price lower than the market - make more profits and also have an easier time investing more $$ into R&D. That said - competition always drives prices down.

    The cameras being announced and released NOW have been in development for a LONG time. The NEXT GEN cameras that will emerge next year are already in very active development.

    What you can buy TODAY - in the under $50K space - will be at least 40% less in two years time. So .... $10,000 camera today - for the same specs - less than $6,000 in two years. $25,000 camera today will be $15,000, etc. The second hand market will be even MORE aggressive.

    We are not even CLOSE to diminishing returns on image fidelity. We can discuss that when we have 100MP motion (12K+) and 2 stops more into the shadows over GEMINI with no noise - and we will certainly see those things (not sure when - but they are certainly coming). And yes, that is the very high end market. I actually think we are going to see MORE EXPENSIVE high-end cameras - $140,000 + price points, etc.

    When HD cameras started to get adopted for episodic narrative - only the bigger budget show stayed on film. So film was features and "big budget shows". Until the digital cameras got better. You will start to see that separation within the digital cinema camera market with respect to what will cost $25K and under cameras - which will shoot a majority of episodic narrative - but the bigger budget shows and features will be on cameras that cost over $100,000. I expect at least 3 options on the very high end. I expect ARRI and RED to both have offerings in that segment.

    Regardless ... ANY camera you buy from today forward you need to fully depreciate in 24 months or less. The resale market is going to get much more aggressive and cameras will NOT hold their resale value like they have been.

    In 3 years the $2,500 to $6,000 space will be very crowded - but on par with what costs $12,000+ today. iPhone will tale a hearty chunk of $1000 and under options and even eat into DSLR sales.

    But yeah ... exciting times for sure!!!

    PS - all of this assumes we resolve our Trade War with China.
    Last edited by Mark L. Pederson; 09-13-2019 at 03:27 PM.
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  10. #1150  
    Senior Member Blair S. Paulsen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark L. Pederson View Post
    (snip) Regardless ... ANY camera you buy from today forward you need to fully depreciate in 24 months or less. The resale market is going to get much more aggressive and cameras will NOT hold their resale value like they have been. (snip)
    Couldn't agree more.

    Cheers - #19
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