The Future for Red

[Jonathan L. Bowen]

Exactly, Mr. Jannard. I have no doubt that RED will be atop the industry for a long time. The entire design of the RED is built for the future, not just for the present. Most people in this industry believed that creating something as incredible as the RED for the price discussed would be literally impossible. In fact, most forums I checked a year to a year and a half ago said the creation of this camera would simply not be possible. Now, it has been proven it is possible, and you made it happen. There will still be many people even in this industry who cannot figure out how it was possible, and it will take them quite a while to catch up. It is not just a matter of shattering their technological dominance but their worldview itself. Their profit models are in disarray, and the world they knew is no longer the same. They can't release something for $100,000 now unless it's three times better than the RED, and they know it.

At first I thought maybe people wouldn't know of the RED, so I'd always kind of say, "Hey have you heard of the RED?" and everyone I've talked to in the industry says, "Yes," and when I say, "I have one on order and so does my friend," they are always excited. In fact the head of production at our film school said, "You do?! The school has not yet made a decision on the RED." That impacted my decision to quit the film school -- a lack of forward-looking philosophies, a dependence on past technologies (16 and 35mm film and Avid) rather than adoptation of new technologies that are destined to rule the industry.

I doubt very much that any other company will be able to compete with RED Digital Cinema for some time.

I suppose you could always say that some company should have come around by now and made Oakley-quality sunglasses for even cheaper than Oakley has. But I've been an avid Oakley supporter for 8 years now, and there are no better sunglasses. Period. It must not be that easy, after all, because anything cheaper is by far crappier.

[Thomas Mathai]

This isn't mass producted products, it's all niche.

Look into any industry and see how much their equipment costs. Some will be ridiculously priced, while others are justified.

Panavision doesn't force anyone to rent their cameras. There's a demand for their equipment, so that's why they stay in business.

Studios used to have camera departments, but things change and it's cheaper for them not to deal with it.

Yes dollies, tripods, and fog spray are expensive, but then who uses them?
There's not much demand for this stuff in the general public.

It's assumed anyone buying this stuff is using it for a specific reason and plans to make money with it.

Even those putting down $20+ K for a Red Camera setup aren't doing it for a hobby. They plan to rent it out, get hired on jobs with it, or make movies that they plan to sell.

Just because something costs too much doesn't mean there aren't alternatives, deals or workarounds. It's up to you as a filmmaker to figure it out.

There has been decades of low budget filmmakers who never had the best or latest equipment, and have find ways to get their movies made.

15 years ago it was considered remarkable if anyone could make a decent movie for less than $20k. Today it's considered normal.

So quit ranting about why things cost so much, because it's not that important, if you have ingenuity on your side.

You should read The DV Rebel's Guide

http://www.amazon.com/dp/0321413644?...206NA9GEXF47W&

[Thomas Mathai]

Why worry about 2 years from now.

In 2 years, the MacPro could have 16 cores, 5TB of storage standard, upgradeable to 32Gigs of Ram with Blu-Ray or HD-DVD burners.

Or it could not. We don't know, we're just guessing.

You can make your educated guesses, and then you can make your wild speculations. Unless you know something we all don't, I say don't worry about it.

[Sam Druckerman]

Um..."question".

What happens 2 years from now when some Chinese company comes out with it's own cheaper version of the Red camera with 2540p capabilities but for a quarter of the price?

Ah, who knows? If that's possible? Or probable?

No disrespect intended, but I think this kind of thinking is really futile. As an example, perhaps we should all stop buying automobiles because it looks to me like the hybrid cars are getting better every year.... so in two or three years they'll probably be better and cheaper......

Oh, wait minute, I need a car Now! I have to get to work, etc. You see, most of us buy cars when we need them..... to get to work now.

And a professional tool like the RED IMHO should be purchased by people who need the best camera available ..... to work with now. Not two years from now.

Just keep your RED busy working for two years and it might the best investment you ever made.

I'm sure someone will come along and try to duplicate what red is doing but red has a head start and will certainly continue to inovate.
Aloha
-A

Agreed, and by then Team RED will probably be introducing the next generation sensor.

And for the record, I'm looking forward to the day (years from now) when it's time to upgrade my RED sensor.... (Thanks Jim)

Because my reincarnated updated RED, will then be an even better value.

I won't mind the fact that this will also be the second knock out blow to the old guard.... When they see all us RED owners upgrading to latest greatest mysterium sensor instead of trashing our cameras to buy there newest disposable......

That will be the day they discover that building a product to last.... is how to win customers and build the kind of product loyalty future MBA's will be studying for years to come.

All this talk about work reminds me, I need to get back to work... on my script.

[Stephen Williams]

You know capitalism is absolutely failing when a company like Panavision is able to get away with renting their cameras and never selling them so they can make absurd profits because nobody can buy the damn things.

Hi,

I think you overestimate the profitability of Panavision. It's been loosing money for a very long time.

Stephen

[Jonathan L. Bowen]

Thomas --

That's exactly my point. These companies know that most of the people renting their equipment or buying their equipment are going to make a good amount of money on what they produce, or at least intend to, so they rip everyone off trying to get a piece of that pie. To me, the way much of the industry works makes no sense and is wasteful to the extreme. There's no reason to be renting equipment you use on a consistent basis. I don't want to rent a dolly; I want to own one. Anything I intend to use often I want to buy. I don't like to rent ANYTHING, personally, I prefer to buy it all. That way it's there for me to use and nobody is making money off me renting it.

Panavision is a smart company, that's for sure, they know they can make more money off keeping their stuff available only for rent. But it's really ridiculous. Whenever that happens another company should be around to sell people a similar product, otherwise there just isn't enough competition in the marketplace.

I don't complain about this kind of stuff, I couldn't care less, I have no use for Panavision whatsoever. I was helping on a shoot the other day at Panavision's Stage 1 and it was really cool seeing their facilities and all, but as for their company's products, no, I don't care at all.

The best way to get around the industry's retarded prices is to find other companies where possible that sell similar items that are not specifically made for the film industry, that way you can get better deals on the equipment. Like you shouldn't go to Studio Depot for close pins because they're going to charge you more money.

Also you can get the SAME clapboard that a lot of professional places sell (for $42, the black and white kind, or even more sometimes, up to $100) at a Hollywood souvenir shop for $15. I know because I got mine online and overpaid for it, and my friend David and I were walking around near the Chinese Theatre the other day (on a break for a shoot near there) and we found one that looked just like mine, that came with a dry erase marker, for $15. I was kind of disgusted, felt like a tool for paying so much money for mine. But I didn't expect a SOUVENIR shop to be selling the same thing!

Stephen --

Then they're doing something wrong! haha.

[PaulClements]

I've always looked at what Red are doing as altering the landscape of the industry in some respects. If others start trying to compete with similar pricing stategies then it'll be beneficial to all shooters.

Personally, however, I've been so impressed by the way Red has handled the production of this camera and their transparency (Often to their own detrament) that I for one would continue to support the company by buying their upgrades for the camera or new releases if and when I feel my current setup doesn't kick it.

Frankly however I don't see the camera becoming obsolete too quickly even in it's original release state. Therefore if someone jumps in to "do a red" the market simply won't exist for them to be as succesful, especially if they are one of the companies that has trickled their technology through to shooters over recent years.

People use and like ARRI and Panivision for their service, not for their price point. I believe that same respect of a company can be attributed to Red.

[Hrvoje Simic]

Um..."question".

What happens 2 years from now when some Chinese company comes out with it's own cheaper version of the Red camera with 2540p capabilities but for a quarter of the price?

Uhmm.....I think you're confusing consumer products with a high-end products.

Do you see any Chinese cheaper versions of Bugatti rollin' by ?

[Jeff Coatney]

IMHO, The difficulties involved in making a RED camera COPY (a knock-off) are legion. At first glance, the pieces of the puzzle are by now well known. The 35mm Imager, the 4K raw capture, the PL mount lenses, etc. It seems like all one has to do is assemble the parts and Viola!: a virtual Red camera.

Not a chance. The real reason no one (like Sony or Kodak) has come close to this camera in the past and the reason no one is crazy enough to chase this technology trail now is very simple. The companies with the resources will never see movie production (acquisition) as we know it today as a business worth getting into.

Even though it seems many hundreds of movies are made every year, when you compare the user base of a "Panavision quality" film camera to the number of amateur videographers and news organizations (basically anyone else on earth with a need to make moving pictures) the differences in scale are orders of magnitude in differences. For most people, even 2K is overkill.

Secondly, only someone with very deep pockets could assemble the engineering talent, the design talent, the tooling support, control at least one or two of the five to seven factories needed and all the raw materials to make a Red. I'd say the development costs to get to this point are in the neighborhood of 7 to 10 million dollars or more. And I'm probably underestimating it significantly.

There are simply too many envelopes being pushed by Red Team. The biggest one is the workflow. This was probably the hardest nut to crack and ironically would be the easiest one to knock-off simply because it exists but has yet to be battle-tested. This includes the Redcode software and the Red RAW format, esentially all the software, which requires a never-ending commitment.

The optics, the housing, the imager, all have demonstrated innovations in either pricing, capability or ergonomics. The critical pathways to these innovations will never be known to anyone outside the core team. Expect the Red COPY to overlook these, disregarding them as unnecessary or needlessly aesthetic. In short, the best COPY of a Red camera will get it wrong and it will be a very expensive lesson for them.

Yet, someone will try.

The biggest advantage that Red has, and the principal deterrent to a knock-off entering the market soon after the Red hits the street is the fact that Mr. Jannard will release the cameras in volume, capturing the market for this camera in a kind of "blitzkrieg" wave (the benefits of which will pass to the end-user in the form of an immediately experienced user base, ready availabilty of parts, and will mitigate the effects of any gray market for RED cameras and accessories showing up for sale on ebay, etc.).

The price-point, which looks like an introductory one, has encouraged a large order base. Even this forum is encouraging demand and creating unusually strong brand-loyalty. This is highly unusual for a new product before it has been released and is similar to the buzz before a blockbuster movie opening where the largest percentage of total revenue is generated in the shortest amount of time.

The Patents (a seventeen to twenty year buffer free of competition ;-D), the fact that final assembly and systems integration will be in a very secure domestic facility, the pricing structure and the relatively small market base for such a sophisticated instrument and toolset, all contribute to a "Perfect Storm" of market forces (real or imagined) that RED Team has intentionally created and will "encourage" the competition to stay out of the game.

I would predict that Arriflex, Panavision, Aaton and whomever else has a stake in this game, will eventually approach RED to handle their technology integration. I can forsee RED mysterium sensors in some Panavisions someday (maybe far in the future, maybe not). If they haven't already.

If I were put in charge of Panavision or Arriflex product development, I'd inquire about buying Mysterium sensors in volume from RED for a licensing fee instead of trying to re-invent the wheel with a sluggish, plodding partner like Sony or Kodak.

By the same token, if I were the CEO of Kodak or Fuji, I'd already be "bumping into" RED staffers at parties, trade shows and golf courses and dropping hints at buying the RED Company (the whole kit-and-kaboodle) rather than chase the technology in the lab. Market leaders wait for the innovator to emerge, then buy the company and own the patents. Obviously RED will be very well established and will have revolutionized motion picture acquisition by then. In say three years?

At any rate, I believe RED's market positioning will be quite safe from interlopers from China or anywhere else for awhile. The same resistance we RED fans encounter from film lovers will eventually erode over time and the passions will transfer to the RED. After all, only a RED ONE is a real RED.

[Chuck T.]

I know for a fact that a big “Japanese” company will be announcing their version of RED camera in Q1 / Q2 of 2008; they already have the sensor and are in dev process. (They are using a 8 Megapixel sensor)