Cinematography.com Naysayers: "4K display won't catch on for 25 years"

[Tom Lowe]

http://www.cinematography.com/index....dpost&p=283415

Sometimes at c.com I feel like a guy at a horse-and-buggy convention in 1909 trying to tell everyone that cars are the way of the future. "Why would people need cars? Horses can run 40mph....blah blah blah."

Even as the molehill of evidence showing the ascendance of 4K as a display format has turned into a mountain of evidence right before their eyes, a lot these guys are still claiming that 4K is "not needed." David, as usual, takes a reasoned, conservative approach, but a lot of the other guys there seem to be resisting 4K at all cost.

Of course many of them are the exact same guys who told us that 4K cameras would never sell, were not "needed," and would never be built anytime soon. :couch:

Anyway, I thought it was a fun debate and am wondering what you guys here think?

[Sanjin Jukic]

A bunch of "IDIOTS!"!!

[Craig Ryan]

Tom,

I think it all depends on the availability of affordable 4k displays and content.

DVD became the most successful home theater format because everyone already had a TV that could play the content, and it was a HUGE difference from VHS. It was like unlocking a secret resolution boost on your TV just by purchasing the player.

HDTV, on the other hand, meant everyone had to go out and buy a new set to see the difference, plus upgrade their cable package. Then a few years later, you even had to upgrade AGAIN to get 1080p Blu Ray capability.

So for home theater content, I'm actually in agreement with the more conservative crowd in that it's going to be a while before it becomes common place in the household. I think 1080 BluRay is more than enough for most cinephiles; most of them actually are more worried about their set's black level than resolution. Spend some time over on avsforum.com and see what i mean. Most don't even know what 4k is.

I think you are right though , Tom, in predicting that 4k sized screens will indeed catch on much quicker for the high end gaming market. But actually, most of the people I know who are constantly upgrading their PCs for the latest and greatest DON'T have 30" monitors; in fact, most of them aren't even capable of displaying 1080p.

I'ts really just a tough thing to predict at this time; I think everyone would love to see 4k become commonplace ASAP, but let's just not act like 1080p is already obsolete.

[Tom Lowe]

BTW, I am not predicting a rapid shift to 4K cable or 4K screens for average viewers. I think it will start with gamers, 4K video producers like us, 4K projection at movie theaters, and high-end AV aficionados who always are willing to pay big bucks for the latest thing.

I think it will take quite some time (a long time!) for the average joe or soccer mom to upgrade their living-room TV to 4K.

As I mentioned on that c.com thread, it was only a couple years ago that barely anyone was able to display any kind of 1080p of any kind at their house. The only 1080p around were Apple trailers on PCs that could handle it. Now all my friends have 1080p TV screens, or are watching 1080p movies on their computers. Same thing will happen with 4K.

[Deanan]

4k RED Ray source will look great on HD screens also. Meaning RED Ray will look fantastic at 2k as well.

It's easy to be a naysayer but alot harder to actually push the envelope.

[Michael Bravin]

4k RED Ray source will look great on HD screens also. Meaning RED Ray will look fantastic at 2k as well.

It's easy to be a naysayer but alot harder to actually push the envelope.

Its licking the envelope that can be a challenge :-)

[David Mullen ASC]

I just don't see 4K becoming a common household entertainment source, not for several more years at least and beyond that, who can say what will happen. It's not because I want to be a naysayer or because I think it's "easy" being a naysayer, it's simply a reasoned and cautious guess based on looking at current trends. We have something like 30% of U.S. households watching HDTV I believe, 720P & 1080i. Of course, that is rising dramatically. But I see the next five years as being taken up by ordinary HDTV becoming commonplace in the household; if 4K in the home happens at all during that time, it will be for a very specialized niche audience.

"Pushing the envelope" is a completely different activity than guessing trends -- that's a form of activism. It's one thing to say that 4K should be a household viewing trend and actively pushing for it to happen... and another to try and guess whether it is likely to happen. So it's an apples and oranges thing to say that someone who analyzes an upcoming trend is not "pushing the envelope". That's like saying that a pollster or census taker should be out there "pushing the envelope".

But clearly this is the wrong crowd to be saying that 4K isn't going to take off for home entertainment in the near future. Personally, I rather the effort be made to get 4K to take off for theatrical presentations and then work on the home video front. We're still fighting the 2K vs. 4K battle for theatrical movies for large screen presentations. It's a bit early to declare a victory and "move on" to putting 4K in homes.

[Graeme Nattress]

4k and beyond displays are inevitable.

Graeme

[David Mullen ASC]

4k and beyond displays are inevitable.

Graeme

The displays may become inevitable, and products to watch on them... but considering how paranoid the studios have been about releasing movies in 1080P, not to mention that many of them don't even finish movies to 4K... I don't see a rush on their part to start giving the public 4K versions of their movies.

But eventually, when everything you watch on home is downloaded or streamed in some way, and there is no longer any difference between a TV set and a computer monitor, then I can see a variety of resolutions being offered to the consumer. Of course, we see that future creeping towards us day by day, but on the other hand, it's also not the way that most households are set-up. I'm visiting my father-in-law's house this weekend and he's got an old 12" monitor and rabbit ears and only watches over-the-air programs. And everyday you also hear that the internet is starting to run into bandwidth problems. So 4K may become inevitable but it also may become a small niche market.

[Casey Green]

The displays may become inevitable, and products to watch on them... but considering how paranoid the studios have been about releasing movies in 1080P, not to mention that many of them don't even finish movies to 4K... I don't see a rush on their part to start giving the public 4K versions of their movies...

Perhaps the Studios won't be the ones who make these decisions in the future... ;-)