2012: The Year of 4K

[Mark L. Pederson]

2012 is shaping up to be the year of 4K.

4K Projectors for the home from more than one manufacturer - 4K TVs from 6 manufacturers that I am aware of. (5 confirmed - 6th is an exciting wild card rumor)

http://smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And_Lar...ED_TV/T8A4B6T8

You can talk all you want about the slow and poor transition to HD - and you can sit there shooting 1080p content and claim that it will be many, many years before we are watching TV shows in 4K - but .... you'd be DEAD WRONG.

Things are VERY different now. TV is the internet. HBO GO has better compression in HD than some carriers. APPLE's VOD numbers for indie films are insane (in a good way). There's COMPETITION to deliver content - Google, Amazon, Apple, Hulu (with more than twice as much as the combined total of video streamed from the websites of ABC, CBS, the CW, Fox and NBC) - so .... delivery platforms will need to differentiate themselves with QUALITY. I'm aware of one early start-up company already working to be the first all 4K broadcast channel.

2012 the 4K dominos will fall.

1080 is the next Black and White. (and yes - you can still make a good movie in black and white ala "The Artist" - but harder when it comes to financing and selling the content)

[KETCH ROSSi]

Definitely good, however, prices really do need to drastically come down... More importantly the size of the 4k Monitors need ot be in the 100" not 55",
the Samsung 9000 Series I got last year for 3D is insanely Sharp and fantastic in it self, but at 55" fails very short of my expectations of True Entertainment when used to the 133" Home Projection screen,
and the 300" Studio screen... But yeah, I can wait for 4k at home... ;)

[Mark L. Pederson]

Definitely good, however, prices really do need to drastically come down... More importantly the size of the 4k Monitors need ot be in the 100" not 55",
the Samsung 9000 Series I got last year for 3D is insanely Sharp and fantastic in it self, but at 55" fails very short of my expectations of True Entertainment when used to the 133" Home Projection screen,
and the 300" Studio screen... But yeah, I can wait for 4k at home... ;)

55" is ideal display size for a monitor IMO. Want a bigger screen? I have already seen the 4K projector working - with my own eyes - that will make your dreams come true :)

[KETCH ROSSi]

55" is ideal display size for a monitor IMO. Want a bigger screen? I have already seen the 4K projector working - with my own eyes - that will make your dreams come true :)

he he, you have no idea how much I'm looking forward to RED's 4K Laser projector... But I also do love to have a 100" 4K TV at home, besides at work for Grading, I guess I become a bit spoiled
but again, with the promised quality of RED's 4K laser projector, then you could be right, and 55" 4k Monitor is al we would need to compliment to the Projector... ;)

[David Rasberry]

The local Regal Cineplex converted 14 of their 16 theaters to 4k since my last visit. Theaters are already done.

[Claus Mueller]

.... and Apple goes retina on all devices. I bet that we‘ll see iMac 4K / Cinema 4K Display in 2012 as well...

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_q2_2012.html

[Mark L. Pederson]

.... and Apple goes retina on all devices. I bet that we‘ll see iMac 4K / Cinema 4K Display in 2012 as well...

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_q2_2012.html

Yes - APPLE is the wild card rumor - I have had a couple sources tell me that APPLE will releases a Smart TV is 55" OLED 4K in the fall of 2012. Hard to know with APPLE - their cards are so close to their chest - but - I have heard chatter from some folks who are pretty connected - rumors have been wrong before - but that would be amazing IMO. That said ... I'm still waiting for my F#@KING NEW MACPRO :)

[Sergio Perez]

Yes - APPLE is the wild card rumor - I have had a couple sources tell me that APPLE will releases a Smart TV is 55" OLED 4K in the fall of 2012. Hard to know with APPLE - their cards are so close to their chest - but - I have heard chatter from some folks who are pretty connected - rumors have been wrong before - but that would be amazing IMO. That said ... I'm still waiting for my F#@KING NEW MACPRO :)

Unfortunately i don't think this will happen. The problem is that a 4K resolution display will make anything that isn't 4K, well, look worse. This is what happens with sd broadcast shown in High resolution displays, for example. I think that Apple will not champion this . (However, I will be more than glad to eat my words if proven wrong!)

The other aspect to take into account is distribution. Blu-ray (and the internet) are the closest we have of true mass market Full HD distribution. In films (worldwide, not only in the US market), Blu ray is just now establishing itself as DVD's successor. A 4K format would take years to penetrate the market (probably 8 to get to current blu-ray status). As much as I am looking forward for 4K, we are still many years until this becomes a reality in a "mainstream" way. We may eventually get there, but, my pessimistic prediction is that we are still 10 years or more away from mass penetration. HOWEVER, I have already sent my money for the Epic. As pessimistic as I am, I think we will eventually get there. Every single shot you take now in 4K will be worth its value in gold in the future. In documentary work, for example, 4K footage can prove to be a constant revenue source. But Red cameras are not only about 4K, but about RAW versatility and frame rates. These features alone are more than enough to establish their value amongst the competition!

[Mark L. Pederson]

As much as I am looking forward for 4K, we are still many years until this becomes a reality in a "mainstream" way. We may eventually get there, but, my pessimistic prediction is that we are still 10 years or more away from mass penetration.

Try 2.5 years. That is all it will take. You can't look at the past for "rate of change and adoption of technology". Everything moves faster going forward.

[Sergio Perez]

Maybe so, Mark, but were I live, for example, the local broadcast has only now been updated to DIgital 16:9 SD. Its ridiculous, but in my neighbor HK they preserve the SD with their HD broadcast in parallel because many households still have SD sets. The online aspect of it all is interesting, but 720p is currently still the standard. I have a video going online with more than 30 000 views, and according to my vimeo plus account, the majority of plays were in SD.

I think that in the US you guys may be closer to 4K, but the rest of the world is still playing catch up to the HD revolution... (excluding Japan, obviously.)

However, if Apple surprises everyone with 4K, this could really change. Everyone in the mobile world is copying their moves. If they go 4K, everyone else will follow. But for that to happen, iTunes needed to have a 4K library ready for distribution. That's Apple's sales model and their big revenue channel. We all know why we aren't seeing blu-ray drives on Macs...