Any more than $4K and it would not be worth upgrading. With so many new affordable 4K models coming out on the market soon, $10K would just be over the top and I don't see it happening in that price range. $10K is not an upgrade, it's a new camera.
My predictions will be $3-$5K, and still I'd have to think hard whether it's worthwhile. How much more income will it create for me. How much slow motion and how much night shooting will I be using. Maybe 5%? If it can shoot 5K at 24 frames on a Scarlet, then it's worth a little more, but I don't see that happening. Personally, I prefer to spend it on fast glass.
6K - 12fps
5K - 25fps
4K - 30fps
2K - 60fps
Upgrade price: $8000-$10,000
I really like the idea of a "board only" upgrade. Hope they can do it!
So... the Scarlet X is leftover sensors from the Epic, is that going to be how Dragon works? Will Red have to move through a bunch of new Dragon sensors, and install the ones that aren't up to spec in Scarlets, or will Red put brand new Dragon sensors in the Scarlet?
If it is a full blown Dragon sensor, then Red will have to hobble it, like Canon does with there cameras right?
If they are sensors that aren't quite up to snuff, then Red might not even know what the specs are until it has a sizable load of lessor sensors, and then Red will have to test to see what can be accomplished with them.
Has anything been said about this yet?
MX-sensors are the same, not leftovers, i don't think this will change with Dragon. The "leftover" parts are more to search on electronics, think cpus with disabled cores or less mhz, just like every GPU/CPU-manufacturer does it. Thats great for us, great for RED and generally good economy.
I think the problematic parts of finalizing specs for a Scarlet upgrade are not technical, it's just about making business decisions. RED wants to give us the best for the money but also has to protect EPIC-X, the cancellation of EPIC-S35 in the past is there for a (understandable) reason. There is also the R1MX, which might disappear when the Dragon lands, that would give a little more room for Scarlet-X. They do also know that paying more than $6k for a upgrade of a brain that costs less than $10k is a totally different thing. The deal will not look as great as the upgrade for EPIC. I'm sure RED is also aware of our dreams/requests we have posted multiple times here.
I'm happy that they clearly said there will be a upgrade, they took the challenge. I'm sure they will do whatever they can to make it a good deal, its just not that easy for Scarlet. ;)
A few ideas:
1.) more than one upgrade path:
a - just the sensor with whatever the current chipset can do, $6k
b - new sensor + new chipset, with 25-30fps @ 5k, $10k
2.) upgrade-path to EPIC-X (~$25k-$28k???)
3.) new model between Scarlet-X and EPIC-X, think EPIC-S with 25-30fps @ 6k, ~$10k-$15k
4.) nr3 but limited to Scarlet-X orders before date xx/xx/xx
5.) just a new Scarlet-X-brain with loyality-rebate for existing Scarlet-Users (if a usable upgrade would cost nearly $10k and makes upgrading a bit senseless)
Any more ideas?
RED will come up with something better anyway, but the guessing game is fun. ;)
Personally, the higher res is the lest of my priorities and I see this as a pretty crucial epic differential for RED - like "HIGH" frame rates.
* If Dragon can give my Scarlet a couple more stops or DR. That's huge.
* Better low light - fantastic.
* Reasonably improved frame rates to still respect the Epic differential...
Perfect. I'm sold.
At the 8-10K price range i'd honestly expect something along the lines of this in a frame rates boost
You aren't cannibalizing the camera the Epic market here, but if the sensor only on the Epic without new boards is 6 thousand, and your fixing boards to bring the Scarlet up to speed, you should get additional frame rates as well, otherwise the modularity thing goes out the window. It will be in a totally different league still. I personally believe for the price of the scarlet we should have 5K 24 fps... It's a great deal for what it is don't get me wrong, I just think they're going to have to be careful with there prices going forth, they might be the head of the pack from here on out, but i've already seen promising gear from other companies that have me interested just because of how much, because of RED's influence they want to do near or the same. At this point I'd just get an Epic if it's more than 6 grand. The MX sensor is good enough for the most part, the people I work with on the Scarlet already are happy with it, and having to pay essentially for another body to get a DR and ISO improvement with maybe a slight FPS boost, doesn't justify it for me.
5k motion / 6k stills is realistic i think, but keep in mind there is the R1MX. The future of it is unknown, will it get a Dragon (later?), will it stay or disappear?
Stills, stills, stills... hmmm, is the still-mode something that is still being developed or is it dropped? I don't think its on RED's priority-list anymore. It would be for Scarlet-X only, EPIC doesn't need it that much, it can do the real DMSC-magic at 5k. ;) The current implementation of 5k in Scarlet is already usable, but it isn't what DSMC is about and i wouldn't consider it as full replacement for a DSLR. Don't misunderstand me, i use it more often than i thought and i like the results, but a few things are missed. For a pure still-mode it isn't complete yet.
Maybe thats going into the consideration too, which would scream for 6k motion. Hehehe. ;)
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